Champions League
2011-02-23 - Inter Milan vs Bayern Munich
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : European Champions League
Wednesday 23 February 2011 - Kickoff 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Inter Milan
They may be the reigning European Champions, but Inter Milan have had a tough season so far. However, the removal of Rafa Benitez as manager and replacing him with Leonardo has at least revived the teams fortunes and they now are a dangerous floater in the competition. It is going to be a tough test for Leonardo as his side face the team they beat in the Final last season.
It had been a tough few months under the guidance of Benitez, but things have changed in Serie A to give the table a better look for Inter fans. At one point it seemed it would be Milan that ran away with the title, but a loss of form for them coupled with improved results for Inter means there are only 5 points between the teams. Inter are 9-3-1 at the San Siro this season, scoring 32 goals and conceding 15. The Italians are 3-0-0 here in the Champions League, scoring 9 goals and conceding 3.
The upturn in form has seen Inter win 10 of 13 games they have played since the turn of the year, and losing just 2 of those. In that time they have extended their winning run at the San Siro to 9 games and they have scored 22 goals in their 7 home games under Leonardo.
Diego Milito, who scored the 2 goals in the win over Bayern in the Final last season, is out of this game. Lucio is available as is Wesley Sneijder who was rested at the weekend with this game in mind. Esteban Cambiasso and Dejan Stankovic have also returned to full fitness although new signing Giampaulo Pazzini is ineligible having played for Sampdoria in the Qualifying Round.
Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich, much like their opponents Inter, have really struggled this season, perhaps under the great expectations following last season coupled with the key injuries to Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery. That makes this tie extra important for Louis Van Gaal with the Bundesliga looking like it may be out of reach.
Bayern sit in 3rd in the German domestic League but are 13 points behind Borussia Dortmund with 11 games left to play this season. The team faces a real battle to play in the Champions League again next season as they hold a 1 point advantage over Hannover in the race for the final spot, although Bayer Leverkusen are still within reach in 2nd. Bayern are 4-4-4 away from home, scoring 20 goals and conceding the same. They are 2-0-1 away from home in the Champions League, scoring 8 goals and conceding 4.
They too have picked up some form of late with only 1 defeat in their last 11 games in all competitions, winning 9 of those games. Bayern have won 6 of their last 8 away games in all competitions and have only lost 1 of those games. They have scored at least 2 goals in 7 of the last 8 away games they have played.
Ivica Olic, a real revelation for the side in last season's run to the Final, is still out. Mario Gomez should take his place in the side, while Diego Contento and Rouven Sattelmaier are both back in training although unlikely to feature.
Head to Head
Well the most recent meeting between the sides took place in Madrid last year in the Champions League Final that Inter won 2-0.
Bayern have actually won on their last 2 visits to the San Siro to play Inter Milan. The last of these games took place 4 seasons ago in the group stage of this competition.
Inter Milan have extended their unbeaten run at home in this competition to 10 games this season, winning the last 7 of those games.
They are 10-1-4 at home against German visitors over the years.
Bayern are 4-2-9 in Italy and have actually lost their last 2 visits, both 3-2, to Fiorentina and Roma.
Prediction
Recent history shows us that the first legs at this stage of the competition generally provide less goals than the second leg as teams are a little more careful in the way they approach the game. This game seems like it will take the exact opposite feel as both teams have vulnerabilities while the attacking side of their game is the most effective.
Inter have scored 22 goals in 7 home games in 2011, while Bayern have scored 22 in their 7 games overall in the New Year. The German side have also scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 games.
Leonardo has also made it clear that his side will look to attack, claiming he likes that about the Champions League and feels his team can beat any other in the competition. Even though Inter have scored a lot of goals in their home games under the Brazilian, it must be noted they have also conceded 11 in those games and kept just the 1 clean sheet.
This is the one game I really wanted to see (outside of Arsenal-Barcelona) as I felt it would be the one that provides some real entertainment. Unfortunately I will be in Marseille while it takes place, but I am going to back goals at what looks a big price at odds against.
I can see both scoring, with Inter possibly taking a close lead to Munich in the second leg.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Inter Milan 3-2 Bayern Munich
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take the Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 (3 UNITS)Follow me on Twitter @DavindaAulak- the direct link is below
