English FA CUP
2011-02-20 - Manchester City vs Notts County
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football : English FA Cup
Sunday 20 February 2011 - Kickoff 2pm
This game is live on TV
Manchester City
It is a sign of the times that Manchester City fans can look forward to a busy schedule as we almost leave February and enter the final 3 months of the season. After a 34 year drought without a trophy, City fans have probably now accepted that their best chance to get the monkey off their back is to win either the FA Cup or the Europa League. Roberto Mancini will also see this as a minimum requirement, along with a Champions League place, to satisfy the owners this season.
This replay falls in between the last 32 tie in the Europa League with Aris, but City have had ample time to get home from the trip to Greece and prepare for this replay. With a busy schedule, City have been forced to play this game on the same weekend as the FA Cup 5th Round. The team should feel confident in getting the job done at home where they are 8-3-2 in the Premier League this season, scoring 21 goals and conceding 10. City are also 4-1-0 at the City of Manchester in cup competitions this season, scoring 13 goals and conceding 4.
The Citizens have not been a in a good run of form with just 1 win from their last 6 games in all competitions. However, that win came in the only home game they have played in that span and extended their winning sequence at the City of Manchester to 5 games since losing to Everton here. Worryingly for Notts County, City have scored 3 or more goals in 4 of their last 5 home games.
James Milner and Nigel de Jong are both unlikely to be risked in this game as they recover from injuries. Shaun Wright-Phillips could be given a start along with Mario Balotelli, the Italian coming on as a sub against Aris on Tuesday.
Notts County
Notts County are managed by ex-Manchester United midfielder Paul Ince, and will be looking to win their 2nd FA Cup tie at a Premier League club. County were very good in the first game against City, harrying them around the pitch, but the playing surface was a clear leveller and things will be much more difficult here.
The main aim for the team this season is to ensure their survival in League One after they gained promotion last season. They currently sit in 18th place in the table and have a 4 point gap to the sides in the relegation zone. County also have a number of extra games to play thanks to their prolonged Cup run. They are 2-4-6 away from home in the League this season, scoring 14 goals and conceding 19. Notts County are 2-1-0 in away games in the Cup this season, winning at higher ranked teams Sunderland and Watford, while only being beaten in extra time by Wolves.
The Magpies had failed to win 6 games since beating Sunderland in the 3rd Round of the Cup, but ended that sequence with an important 2-0 home win over Colchester on Tuesday. They are unbeaten in 5 games in all competitions since losing at Exeter.
I have no team news on Notts County at the time of writing.
Head to Head
The draw at Meadow Lane was their first meeting in 9 seasons.
Manchester City beat Notts County 2-1 at Maine Road back when both sides were in League One.
Prediction
Roberto Mancini knows the importance of his side continuing their march for a trophy and he cannot afford to take this game lightly, especially with the League looking out of reach this season. The team have been faced with a lot of games in a small period of time, but Mancini can call on a deep squad to make rotations and the return of Mario Balotelli to full fitness cannot be understated.
Notts County have beaten a Premier League side away from home already this season in the FA Cup, but I feel their best chance of winning this tie would have been in the first game at home where they had the crowd and the equaliser of a poor pitch to play on. We know the team will work hard, I just think after 60 minutes the pace and tempo of the Premier League players could be telling.
City have been scoring goals for fun at home in recent games and this is going to be my biggest play of the month. There is enough quality in the City squad to cover a couple of absences and I think they will win this by at least a couple of goals.
The odds on a straight up win are plenty short, and I dont like tipping teams at sub 1.2.
Instead I am backing City on the Asian Handicap of 1.75- essentially this means half of the stake is backing City to win by 2 goals or more, while the other half is a push for a 2 goal win and a winner if City win by 3 + goals.
I will keep a close eye on team news, and if I feel there will be too many changes I will update at least on the morning of the game on my Twitter account. However, I will begin by staking 6 Units on this game on the Asian Handicap where I feel City will win with a bit to spare.
The Pick :
Manchester City 4-1 Notts County
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Manchester City - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 (6 UNITS)Follow me on Twitter @DavindaAulak- the direct link is below
