German Bundesliga
2011-02-20 - Bayer Leverkusen vs Vfb Stuttgart
A Sports Betting Pick by Niko
Football ; Germany : Bundesliga
Bay Arena
Sunday,20th February 2011 – kickoff 15:30
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen have been in superb form in the past couple of months losing just two of the last 13 Bundesliga matches. Last weekend they beat 3-0 Eintracht Frankfurt away which was their eight away win in eleven matches this season. They continued the good run in Europe as well beating Metalist Kharkiv 4-0 away during midweek.
At their home ground their form is a bit shaky as they have four wins, four draws and three losses which prevented them being much closer to the Bundesliga leaders.
Good thing about Bayer Leverkusen is that they have large and versatile squad and the team has the best midfield in the league as all of their midfielders combined have scored whopping 29 goals. Also the last five team goals were all scored by midfielders which clearly speaks for itself.
Against Vfb Stuttgart, Bayer Leverkusen usually scores a lot and in the last four home matches at the Bay Arena against Vfb Stuttgart the team have scored twelve goals.
There will be some changes in the team since last week as Michael Ballack has knee irritation and is not able to play so he will be replaced by Simon Rolfes. The Swiss international Tranquillo Barnetta had a meniscus surgery and is definitely out,so his replacement will be Sidney Sam who had scored two goals in the Europa League match during midweek.
There is small question mark who will be the team striker in this match. Eren Derdiyok showed a very good performance against Metalist and scored a goal, but Steffan Kiessling after missing the start in the last weekends match, now is awaiting for his 200th Bundesliga appearance so that choice will probably be made just before the kick off.
Probable Bayer Leverkusen line-up :
Schwaab, Reinartz, Hyypia, Kadlec,
Vidal, Rolfes,
Sam, Renato Augusto, Castro,
Kiessling
Vfb Stuttgart
Vfb Stuttgart also played in the Europa League and even had the 1-0 lead over Sporting Lisbon, but eventually lost the match 2-1.
Vfb Stuttgart have lots of job to do if they want to avoid relegation as they have just two wins in the last eleven matches played.
However, they started this year well and went unbeaten on both away games that they have played(1-1 against Borussia Dortmund and 2-3 victory over Borussia M`Gladbach), but were thrashed 4-1 against FC Nurnberg in the last round.
Vfb Stuttgart have also managed only one away win this season so far and have six losses and three draws.
Vfb Stuttgart will have to play without Timo Gebhart, Pavel Pogrebnyak and Artur Boka who are all injured and without the suspended striker Ciprian Marica. Especially bizarre is the injury of the Russian striker Pogrebnyak, who broke a rib at a training session during last week.
In the attack, Cacau will be paired with Martin Harnik, but the formation might switch during the match with three strikers adding Tamas Hajnal in the attack as well.
Probable Vfb Stuttgart line-up :
Funk, Tasci, Delpierre, Molinaro,
Kuzmanovic, Trasch ,Hajnal, Elson,
Harnik, Cacau
The Betting Verdict
Bayer Leverkusen and Vfb Stuttgart have played total of 63 matches, with Bayer Leverkusen winning 25 of them, 22 matches had ended in Vfb Stuttgart victory and there were 16 draws. The first match between these two teams this season ended in convincing 4-1 away win for Bayer Leverkusen.
Interesting fact is that none of the last ten matches between Bayer Leverkusen and Vfb Stuttgart had ended in a draw. Bayer Leverkusen won six of the matches and Vfb Stuttgart had won four of them.
This should be highly entertaining match to watch as both teams need the victory from opposite reasons. Bayer Leverkusen can not afford to slip up as they will lose the second place at the table, and Vfb Stuttgart must win in order to move out of the relegation place which they are currently holding.
Bayer Leverkusen are the better team, but in this type of matches its risky to back them as Vfb Stuttgart have shown some signs of improvement and might pull a surprise draw or even a win. So instead on betting on straight winner i would go with over 2.5 goals to be scored in this match as both teams will play offensively and the history and statistics suggests that there should be few goals in this match.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Bayer Leverkusen-Vfb Stuttgart 3-2
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Over 2.5 goals to be scored in this match
