NBA Basketball
2011-01-28 - Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Friday 28 January 2011 - Tip-Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
Kevin Durant was absolutely scintillating on Wednesday night as he scored a career high 47 points and 18 rebounds to help the Oklahoma City Thunder (29-16) hold off the Minnesota Timberwolves and make it back to back wins. They now have a chance to match a franchise high of 6 straight wins at home as they host the hapless Washington Wizards (13-31), a team yet to taste success on the road this season.
It was the 2nd consecutive game in which Durant led his team to victory. The first involved a buzzer beating 3 pointer to put the New York Knicks away and then it was the performance mentioned above. All of his teammates were quick to praise the All-Star and acknowledged his importance to this young side.
Durant leads the NBA in scoring with an average of 28.6 points per game, but he has been even more impressive at home recently, pushing that average up by 5 points during this 5 game winning run. He has also averaged 31.8 points per game against Washington over the last 4 games and has been shooting at almost 60% from the field.
Oklahoma City Thunder have a 15-3 record at home this season when the team surpasses 100 points. This does not bode well for a Washington team that is allowing an average of 108.7 points per game on the road.
If you listened to Flip Saunders comments about the upcoming 4 game road trip for the Wizards, you could be forgiven for forgetting that the team has lost all 21 contests away from the Capital this season.
The Wizards lost their 4th game in the last 5 played but there are signs of a bright future in the emerging talents of Nick Young and the Number 1 pick last year John Wall. Young is averaging 23.6 points per game over his last 9 games, thats 6 more than his season average, while Wall had his 15th double-double of the season when recording 10 points and 13 assists in the loss to Denver.
Washington are 8 games away from tying an unwanted record of most consecutive road losses to begin a season and could be missing Kirk Hinrich for yet another game. Hinrich is averaging 11 points per game but has already finished the last 3 games with an elbow issue.
The other concern for the team will be the average of 91.5 points per game over their last 10 road games. The Thunder are 9-1 at home when they have limited their opponents to less than 100 points.
Head to Head
Oklahoma City have won the last 3 meetings in the series between the teams and have averaged 108.5 points per game in those victories. They have beaten the Wizards in their last 2 visits to the Ford Center, after losing back to back games here before that.
The Thunder are 3-1-1 against the spread in the last 5 games in the series.
Oklahoma City are 12-10 against the spread at home this season, Washington are a disappointing 5-16 on the road.
Oklahoma City Thunder are 14-13 against the spread on 1 days rest, Washington are 1-3 when having 2 days rest.
Other Interesting Notes
Oklahoma City Thunder are 7-3 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record. That reads the same for when they are the home favourite.
They are 6-1 against the spread when playing a team with a losing road record.
Washington are 8-20 against the spread in their last 28 games on the road as the underdog.
They are 7-20 against the spread in the game following a double digit home loss.
Prediction
All the trends, recent history and current form of the teams suggest the home side should be covering the spread... so why am I picking Washington with the points?
Firstly, Oklahoma City are coming into this game off two emotionally and physically draining matches. They have had a rest in that time, but there is the possibility that they take the Wizards a little easy and allow the game to be closer than it should be.
So, as I am questioning their focus already it also makes interesting reading that their next game is against the highly unpopular Miami Heat. This again raises the possibility that the Thunder are overlooking Washington and could have turned their minds to that game with the Heat on Sunday.
While the Wizards have not been covering the spread in recent games, they have not been overly disgraced in the last 10 games, apart from the 18 points loss to Phoenix at home. They have surprised Boston in a recent game and Utah, both at home, and they are capable of rocking the apple cart if Oklahoma City are indeed focused elsewhere.
The Wizards are being given a double digit headstart and I think they could make that interesting here. I'll take the dog with the points.
The Pick :
Oklahoma City Thunder 108-101 Washington Wiza
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'm taking the Washington Wizards + 10.5 PointsFollow me on Twitter @DavindaAulak- the direct link is below
