NBA Basketball
2011-01-27 - Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Thursday 27 January 2011 - Tip-Off 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The Dallas Mavericks (29-15) will feel they have gone beyond a sticky patch they were in after Dirk Nowitzki missed some games, and now they have a chance to record their first 3 game winning run in 2011. The next 4 games are all to be played at home, and the Mavericks will feel they can get off to a good start against the defensively challenged Houston Rockets (22-25).
Dallas showed some real heart and character as they fought back from an 8 point half time deficit to record a win over the LA Clippers on Tuesday evening. 4 players from their team scored at least 20 points in that game and helped get this homestand off to a good start after being 2-5 on the road in recent games.
Jason Terry recorded his own season high of 28 points in the game against the Clippers. Nowitzki grabbed 20 points himself, but is only averaging 19 points per game in his last 6 games since returning from an injury, 4 points less per game than his season average.
Nowitzki has a particularly good time when he faces off with the Houston Rockets, averaging 26 points per game at home against them and leading his team to 20 victories from 23 games when he has at least 20 points.
The Mavericks will also be looking out for an increased production from Center Tyson Chandler. The big man has averaged 9.6 points per game this season but has 40 points in his last 2 games. The Mavericks improved to 9-1 when Chandler has at least 14 points.
Houston themselves will have gained some confidence after a win over the LA Clippers, outscoring them by 16 in the final Quarter to record the win last night. That improved the Rockets to winning 5 of their last 7 games overall.
The Rockets will be looking for a better defensive effort than they have given in their 7 road games over the last month. They have allowed an average of 110 points per game, not good news when the next four games are at Dallas, San Antonio, the Lakers and Utah.
Kevin Martin has been particularly impressive over his last 5 games when he has averaged 28 points per game, although he was held to a season low of 8 last night. Martin has struggled in recent games at Dallas, scoring 15 points per contest but shooting at less than 30% from the field.
Head to Head
Dallas have won 3 of their last 4 home games against Houston, but had lost back to back games against the Rockets here before that.
The underdog is 9-3 against the spread in recent games in the series. However, Houston are 6-14 in the last 20 games.
Dallas are 10-12-2 against the spread at home this season, Houston are 12-11-1 on the road.
The Mavericks are 12-12-1 against the spread when having 1 days rest, Houston are 5-6-1 on back to back nights.
Other Interesting Notes
Dallas are 19-41-3 against the spread in their last 63 games at home. This becomes 17-37-3 against the spread when considered the home favourite.
They are 11-25-2 against the spread when playing teams with losing records on the road.
The Mavericks are 12-26-2 against the spread when favoured by between 5 and 10 points at home.
Houston are 7-21 against the spread when playing a team with a winning home record of above 60%.
Prediction
This is an interesting game as both teams are coming into it after playing the LA Clippers. Houston were better defensively in that game, but Dallas looked like their old selves after recent struggles.
I was surprised that Houston were being given so many points as they do like playing their interstate rivals and will feel they have a point to prove against the better team. The rotation may not be as strong as when Yao Ming is available, but there is plenty of talent in the Rockets team when they put things together.
I also feel Dallas struggle at home a little because of the expectations of owner Mark Cuban which is then voiced by the fans. They have not played that well since Dirk Nowitzki returned to the side and have had to battle hard to pick up wins.
This looks like it could develop into a high scoring game and I will keep the points on my side.
The Pick :
Dallas Mavericks 112-108 Houston Rockets
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take Houston Rockets + 6.5 PointsFollow me on Twitter @DavindaAulak- the direct link is below
