NFL Football
2011-01-02 - Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Football : United States : NFL : Week 17
Sunday 2 January 2011 - Kickoff 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Detroit Lions (5-10)
The Detroit Lions have a chance to end their season on a real positive note as a win would enable them to not be the sole team at the bottom of the NFC North for the first time in 4 seasons. There are some really good pieces both on the Offense and Defense in Mo-Town these days and the Lions are definitely improving as a team. They come into this final game on a 3 game winning run, and have a chance to win 4 in a row for the first time since 1999- the last year they made the Play Offs.
Matt Stafford looks like being a really good QB but has had injury problems ever since he entered the NFL after not suffering any such issues during High School and College. Drew Stanton will start this game for the Lions, but is likely to be without one of the top receivers in the game in the form of Calvin Johnson.
Detroit won their last 3 games with late drives against Green Bay and Tampa Bay before overcoming a 10 point deficit last week in their win over Miami. All season the Lions have been playing hard, with only 2 of their defeats coming by wide margins.
Minnesota Vikings (6-9)
Minnesota finish off this awful season but could end it with a ray of hope as the QB position, which was looking like a problem area at the end of the season, looks like it could be filled with Joe Webb who looked decent enough in his first start last week against Philadelphia. This is the 2nd time they will be playing in this arena in the last month as Detroit were kind enough to host the Vikings' 'home' game with the New York Giants. Lesley Frazier will also use this as his final interview for the vacant Head Coach role.
Brett Favre has still not passed his concussion tests and it looks like Webb will be the starting QB. It was very unlikely that Favre came back this season to end his career this way (knowing Favre, who can tell if it really is over), but the concussion has kept him out the last game and his off the field issues have also been resolved.
Webb helped the Vikings stun Philadelphia last time out on Tuesday, and was ably backed up by Adrian Peterson. Peterson is currently suffering from a knee injury and, although he finished last week, his status for this game is Questionable. The RB has had some huge successes against Detroit in the past, surpassing 100 yards in 5 of the last 6 meetings including a 2 TD, 160 yard day in the win earlier this season.
Head to Head
Detroit have lost 16 of the last 17 meetings between these NFC North rivals. The last 6 have all been won by the Vikings.
Minnesota are 7-2-2 against the spread in the last 11 meetings between the teams. They are 3-1-1 in Detroit.
The Lions are 6-1 against the spread at home this season. Minnesota are 2-5 on the road.
Other Interesting Notes
Detroit are just 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 as favourites. They are 4-15 against the spread against teams with losing records.
Minnesota are 4-24 against the spread in their final road game of the season and the Vikings are 6-2 against the spread against teams with a losing record at home.
Vegas has seen a slight lean towards Minnesota with around 64% of the bets landing on them.
Prediction
Week 17 can always be a minefield as teams have either nothing to play for, or are looking ahead to the Play Offs. This is one of those meaningless games in terms of continuing this season, but for Minnesota and Detroit it is a good place to put a marker down for next season.
Both teams have suffered key injuries throughout the season and it seems that the Lions are on the way up and the Vikings are on the way down. Minnesota look like they have missed the window with this crop of players to make the SuperBowl, whereas the Lions are a young team that is improving.
The thing that stood out to me with this game is that I feel the fact that Minnesota played as late as Tuesday has made the wrong team the favourite. Personally I would have made the Vikings the slight favourites in this game as I think they can win outright. Motivation should still be there to impress Lesley Frazier and the players seem to want Frazier to get the Head Coach job on a more permanent basis.
The Lions have a number of injuries, but the final straw could be the loss of Calvin Johnson. Without the WR presence, I think the Lions find it much harder to move the chains on a decent Run Defense and I dont have the same faith in Drew Stanton as I do if Matt Stafford was under Center.
I'll take the points and hope the Vikings keep this close.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Detroit Lions 20-24 Minnesota Vikings
