English Premier
2010-12-28 - Manchester City vs Aston Villa
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premier League
Tuesday 28th December 2010
Manchester City
Last 5 Manchester City games at home : W1-D2-L2 F2-A5
Third placed Man City are having a very good season, they trail leaders and city rivals United by 2 points having played 2 games more so they cannot afford too many slip ups between now and the end of the season. Up next for Mancini's side is Aston Villa at home.
On Boxing Day, City raced into a quick 2-0 lead against Newcastle at St James and did not look back eventually winning 3-1. The win is City's 3rd in 4 games and they are starting to get a momentum going as they enter the second half of the season. However, City had previously won 2 in a row before a loss at home to Everton blew their big chance of leading the Premiership on Xmas day.
Being top at Xmas wins you nothing, but historically being top at Xmas is quite a landmark as sides top on this date tend to go on and top the table come May time when it does matter. Having blown their chance just before Xmas against Everton, many would not have been surprised to see the side then drop points at Newcastle on Boxing Day, but as mentioned above City rose to the task and quickly found themselves back to winning ways.
The home form of late is in fact awful, only Fulham have a poorer points total in the last 5 home games within the division. City have only collected 5 points out of a possible 15, losing to Arsenal (3-0) and Everton (2-1) whilst picking up draws against Man United and Birmingham (both 0-0). The only victory was against Bolton (1-0) and if Mancini wants his side to be crowned Champions come the end of the season, this team must start winning at home on a regular basis.
Unlike other sides in the Premiership, City should not be affected by the 2 day rest between fixtures given the huge squad that they have. Having the squad of superstars is perfect for a time like this, as other sides gamble and play tired players, Mancini can simply call upon a fresh International to step into his team.
Team news for Man City is that Kolo Toure will step back into the side after serving a one match ban, he is likely to replace Lescott in the middle of defence. Up front Balotelli was only introduced with 5 minutes to go last time out against Newcastle so I expect him to start alongside Carlos Tevez with James Milner the most likely to miss out.
Predicted Manchester City Lineup :
Hart, Zabaleta, Kompany, Lescott, Kolarov, Barry, De Jong, Toure Yaya, Silva, Balotelli, Tevez.
Aston Villa
Last 5 Aston Villa games away : W0-D1-L4 F2-A9
Aston Villa are having a nightmare season so far and at this half way stage Villa lie in 15th place. Up next a very tough fixture away to Manchester City.
Former manager Martin O'Neil left the club in a huff before the season even started, and things have just gone from bad to worse. From challenging for a champions league place last season, the Villa find themselves a massive 11 points off 4th spot and an alarming 4 points above the relegation zone.
Gerard Houllier is the new man in charge and to be fair to him he wasn't given a pre-season with his new side and no opportunity to sign anyone as he was appointed after the transfer window shut. However, taking over a solid top 10 side and bringing them scarily close to the relegation zone is just not good enough.
The recent form is very poor, with just 1 win in the last 6 games with 4 defeats, a record which has seen the side plummet down the table and when looking specifically at the away form it's even grimmer reading for the Villa faithful.
Overall away from home Aston Villa have the second worst record in the league. From 8 away games played, only 4 points have been obtained which is a result of 6 losses and just the 1 win. The win came against midland rivals Wolves thanks to an 88th minute winner back in late September. Since then 5 away games have been played and just the once has Houllier's side avoided defeat, drawing 1-1 at Fulham who for the record only have the 16th best home record in the league.
Scoring goals away from home is the problem for this side, just 2 goals in its last 5 is not good enough. It's been 229 minutes since Villa last scored away from home after being shut out in the second half against Fulham and then in back to back games against Blackburn and Liverpool.
What makes things worse is that Villa recently played Spurs on Boxing Day at home with 11 v 10 for over 60 minutes of the game and still went on to lose that game. The consolation is that they did score, but given Spurs have kept one clean sheet all year and it was 11 v 10 for so long it kind of takes away any creditability to Villa's goal.
Against Manchester City, Villa could be in for a long afternoon, losing to 10 men at home and having one of the worst away records in the league is not going to help the confidence within the camp at all.
Team news is that Delph, Sidwell and Luke Young all remain out whilst Ashley Young and Heskey are doubts. Heskey limped off in the defeat to Spurs with an ankle injury but is hopeful that he can shake it off in time. Ashley Young is really struggling and is likely to join his name same Luke on the sidelines.
The good news for Aston Villa is that club captain Petrov could return to the lineup for the first time since October and is likely to replace young midfielder Hogg. Other than that it's the same side that did so poorly against Tottenham last time out.
Predicted Aston Villa Lineup :
Friedel, Lichaj, Cuellar, Collins, Warnock, Albrighton, Petrov, Bannan, Downing, Agbonlahor, Heskey.
The Betting Verdict
All the momentum is with City, their recent dip in performances at home is going to come to an end sooner rather than later and facing one of the worst travellers in the league after they couldn’t beat 10 men sounds like perfect timing to me.
Villa just don't have enough to hurt City and I see this being a comfortable home win for Mancini’s side. Home Win.
Good Luck.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Manchester City 2-0 Aston Villa
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Manchester City to win at 1.50+ @ Pinnaclesports
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Consider Manchester City -1 AH 2.05 @ Pinnaclesports
