NFL Football
2010-12-19 - New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Football : United States : NFL : Week 15
Sunday 19 December 2010 - Kickoff 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have control of the AFC North and could wrap it up this weekend if results go in the right way. That would include beating the New York Jets here at Heinze Field. The Steelers also look set to finish as the Number 2 seed in the AFC which would mean receiving 1 bye week in the Play Offs and a chance to get their players back to full health.
The Steelers look to win their 5th straight win this Sunday but they have been struggling on the Offense side of the ball. They have been relying on their stifling Defense to get the job done and have allowed just 9 points per game in the 4 game winning run they are enjoying. The Defense scored 2 TDs last weekend against the Bengals to help the Steelers record the win and is helping the Offense that has scored just 1 TD in 11 Quarters of Football.
The big loss for Pittsburgh is Troy Polamalu who has been playing really good football of late. He has been shut down for the regular season as he is suffering some injuries and the Steelers know they need him in January. Polamalu had 4 Interceptions in his last 4 games, returning 1 to the house for a pick 6.
Heath Miller is likely back to boost the Offense that needs a spark. Rashard Mendenhall has struggled on the ground, only breaking 100 yards 1 time in his last 10 games. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown just 1 TD pass in the last 3 games and top receiver Mike Wallace has been struggling.
New York Jets (9-4)
The New York Jets have just hit a wall recently as they look to break a 2 game skid. This losing run has seen them essentially lose the AFC East to the New England Patriots although they are still in a strong position to make the Wild Card Round. It will mean the Jets are likely to face 3 consecutive road games to get to the SuperBowl but they are 5-1 in road games this season.
Mark Sanchez has struggled in his last 2 starts against the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins as the clamour continues to rise about possibly benching the 2nd year QB. Rex Ryan has stated he would go to Mark Brunell if he needs to as rumours persist that Sanchez, a California export, cannot play in the cold weather the East faces at this time of the year.
Sanchez has thrown 4 Interceptions and 0 TD passes in the last 2 games. The Offense will look for a spark to come from the running game where LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene have been struggling. This is also the return to Heinze Field for Santonio Holmes who is looking forward to showing the Steelers what they are missing after he was traded away in the offseason.
Even after all the struggles faced by the Offense, it is the much vaunted Defense that continues to play tough and they will make it tough for the Steelers. The Jets will use a number of blitz packages and Darrelle Revis will be hoping to strand Mike Wallace on Revis Island this week.
Head to Head
The New York Jets have never won a game at Heinze Field, going 0-7 in franchise history.
The last time the teams met was in 2007 when the Jets won in OT at home. The last meeting at Heinze Field was 2 years earlier and it was the Steelers who came through in OT.
Pittsburgh are 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 games overall. New York Jets are 1-3 over the same period.
Other Interesting Notes
Pittsburgh are 21-8 against the spread in home games in December since 2000.
New York Jets are 11-6 against the spread on the road since 2009. They are 7-4 against the spread as underdogs since 2009.
The Steelers are 3-7-1 against the spread without their leader Troy Polamalu in the line up.
Pittsburgh are the pick according to the money in Vegas with 60% of the bets landing on them.
Prediction
This spread seems like an overreaction as far as I can tell. If this game was played 2 weeks earlier, before the Jets imploded against New England, we would have seen a much closer spread, possibly by 2 points in favour of the home team.
New York will dial up a number of blitz packages and I expect they will be able to get to Ben Roethlisberger as the Offensive Line of the Steelers has been a little porous of late.
Turnovers could be the key to the game and Mark Sanchez has to make smarter decisions. He could have been picked off 5 times by the Dolphins last week and he will be under pressure as his own Offensive Line is depleted this Sunday.
I just cant see why the Steelers have been given such a big spread to overcome. The Jets are still a good team and the Defense can help them out here. The loss of Troy Polamalu cannot be underestimated at all as shown by the Steelers recent record without him.
I have to take the Jets to cover the spread here.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Pittsburgh Steelers 16-13 New York Jets
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take the New York Jets + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 (Paddy Power)
