NFL Football
2010-12-19 - Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Football : United States : NFL : Week 15
Sunday 19 December 2010 - Kickoff 4:15pm ET
9:15pm (British Standard Time)
Oakland Raiders (6-7)
This has been an interesting year for the Oakland Raiders as it looked like they were taking big steps forward after a number of sub-standard seasons. This is the first time they have won 6 games in a season since reaching the SuperBowl in 2002 and much of that is down to their record against fellow teams in the AFC West. The Raiders are 4-0 within the Division but still find themselves 2 games behind Kansas City with 3 games to play.
The defeat to Jacksonville last Sunday after securing a 10 point lead ended any lingering hopes the Raiders may have had in winning the Division. However, there have been some postive displays from Jason Campbell at QB and especially Darren McFadden that may have Oakland becoming relevant again.
Jason Campbell has the 2nd best passer rating of his career last week and recorded 2 TD passes. Darren McFadden had over 200 yards of Total Offense and scored TDs on passes and rushes.
Oakland just need to play a little better on Defense. That unit is 14th in the NFL in Total Defense which is impressive but they rank 29th in the League in giving up plays of 20 yards or more. This season, Oakland have given up 61 such plays, including 2 in the loss to the Jaguars last week that led to TDs.
Denver Broncos (3-10)
The Josh McDaniels era is finished at Mile High City and it is hard to see what the future of this franchise is after a shocking season. McDaniels never got the fans onside as Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler were moved on because they did not want to play for him and then Tim Tebow was picked up as a 1st round pick in the Draft in April. The Broncos looked like they were already in holiday mood as they were beaten heavily in Arizona last Sunday.
Denver lost a Head Coach and an Offensive Co-Ordinator when firing McDaniels and this showed at the Cardinals. The Broncos rushed for over 130 yards on the ground but gave the ball away 6 times, with Kyle Orton being picked 3 times. Orton finished with the 3rd worst passer rating in his career and was banged up enough that he will either not start or play hurt this Sunday. Tim Tebow took the majority of the snaps during the week and is expected to play.
Tebow getting the start will be the story from this game as many did not expect him to ever play a NFL regular season game. Tebow has had to change his mechanics in throwing the ball and we can expect a lot of Knowshon Moreno and screen and bubble passes to make things easier for the rookie QB.
Denver have not been playing good Defense in recent games, giving up 29 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games.
Head to Head
Denver do have a good record against Oakland here over the last 2 seasons, winning both games by outscoring the Raiders 64-17. Denver have not been sweeped in the series since 2002.
However, earlier this season we saw the Raiders put up 59 points on Denver at Mile High as Darren McFadden ran all over them. I will go out on a limb here and suggest a similar game plan will be in place for Denver here.
Oakland have won 4 of the last 6 games in the series.
Denver are 2-7 against the spread in the last 7 games in the series.
Oakland are 1-3 against the spread in their last 4 games overall but had won 5 in a row previous to that. Denver are 2-7 against the spread overall.
Other Interesting Notes
Oakland do not have a great record when playing teams with losing records at home.
They are 4-19 against the spread in those games recently and are 2-10 against the spread as the favourite since 2006.
Oakland are 12-31 against the spread against teams with losing records since 2001.
The money in Vegas is all over the Oakland Raiders after seeing the demoralising loss suffered by Denver to a poor Arizona team last Sunday.
Prediction
Even with those statistics posted above, I just cant look beyond the Oakland Raiders here to win this game with a bit to spare. They will continue to run the ball, which they have been effective at doing, and Jason Campbell will be able to deal with short yard situations.
I also feel the Defense can have a big day knowing Tim Tebow will have limitations in what he can do with the ball and I can the Raiders making it hard for Denver to move the chains throughout the day.
I think Darren McFadden has another big game and will lead the Raiders to a win and cover the spread.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Oakland Raiders 31-14 Denver Broncos
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take the Oakland Raiders -8 Points
