NFL Football
2010-12-19 - New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Football : United States : NFL : Week 15
Sunday 19 December 2010 - Kickoff 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)
Baltimore Ravens (9-4)
The Baltimore Ravens struggled to a win over the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football after allowing the Texans to come back from an 18 point deficit in the 2nd half. The Ravens have not been playing very well of late and are a game behind Pittsburgh in the race for the AFC North Division. A defeat here would essentially leave Baltimore with a fight to make it into the Play Offs as one of the Wild Card teams.
The most worrying/disappointing aspect of the game against Houston last week was the number of big drives the Defense gave up. I would be hard pressed to remember another time when the Ravens allowed a team to march 95 yards down the field to score a TD but to allow a 95 yard drive and a 99 yard drive in the same game is quite shocking. The Defense also allowed a 2 point conversion as Houston had their way with them.
However, they are ranked at 10th in the NFL in Total Offense allowed at 319 yards per game and they are 8th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, limiting teams to under 100 yards per game on the ground.
The Offense finally got back to scoring ways after being called out by Derrick Mason after the Pittsburgh game and Joe Flacco has thrown 21 TD passes this season with only 8 Interceptions.
New Orleans Saints (10-3)
The reigning SuperBowl Champions have been getting on with business quietly, but very very effectively. They remain in the hunt for the NFC South Division title as they trail Atlanta by 1 game. Next Monday Night, the Saints get a chane to play the Falcons in Atlanta but they have another bird to take care of here. After struggling at the beginning of the season with the hangover from last season, the Saints really look like they mean business again.
The Saints have won 6 games in a row to keep the pressure on Atlanta, and it is the surge in Offensive production that can be the key to this. The team is averaging 30 points per game in the winning run, up by 9 points per game from their first 7 games of the season. They also average 30 yards more in Total Offense in the latest run. New Orleans have scored at least 30 points in their last 5 games, tying a franchise record.
Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush have both made returns to the team in recent weeks and the running game has subsequently picked up too. They have reached 100 yards on the ground in 4 of the last 5 games they have played, and that is up from the average of 84 yards per game earlier this season. Thomas and Bush had 129 yards combined in Total Offense last week against St Louis.
The Defense is also trying to do their bit as they have held teams to 19 points or less in 4 of the last 6 games.
Head to Head
Baltimore beat New Orleans the last time they played in 2006. Their last meeting in Baltimore was in 2002 and New Orleans got the best of things on that occasion.
New Orleans are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 road games.
Baltimore are 3-3 agains the spread in their last 6 overall.
Other Interesting Notes
New Orleans are 49-37 against the spread in road games since 2000. They are 26-18 in those games when they are the underdog.
Drew Brees is 29-18 against the spread as the underdog. He is also 24-16 against the spread when coming in to the game with back to back wins.
67% of the Vegas money is on the Saints after people saw the Ravens on Monday Night Football.
Prediction
This is a really tough game for Baltimore to come into off the back of a short week. The Ravens need to improve their Offensive Line play as they are giving up far too many Sacks in recent games and will be under pressure from the Blitz happy Saints.
New Orleans have been putting up points in a similar manner to last season and have finally begun clicking on the Offense side of things in recent games. They did drop a few passes last week and they wont be able to do that against a tough Defense like the Ravens, but Drew Brees should be licking his lips after seeing what Matt Schaub and the Texans managed to do on Monday.
Elite QBs being given points does not usually bode well for their opponents and it is interesting to see the record Brees has as an underdog. I think he adds to that here so I will take the Saints to cover the spread.
I would not be surprised at all if New Orleans win this as the underdog and will take them straight up and with the points.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Baltimore Ravens 24-27 New Orleans Saints
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take a shot at the underdog and pick New Orleans Saints WIN
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
For those playing on the spreads, I would take the underdog with the points so New Orleans Saints + 2.5 Points
