NFL Football
2010-12-19 - Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : United States : NFL Football
Sunday, December 19th, 2010 - Kickoff 1:00PM ET
(6:00PM GMT)
THE SITUATION
Jacksonville currently has a high scoring team with a swiss cheese defence. That's what most would say, and it showed last week, as they finished 38-31 at home against the Oakland Raiders. The Jags have played 10 overs and 3 unders this season, and on the road, that goes to 1 under in 6 trips. I think this is affecting the line. The truth is that when the Jags play opponents from within their division, the psychology or the game changes, and this affects play. This season, they have played 6 division games. 50% of the time, the Under has hit every time.
The Indianapolis Colts, who were in the middle of a massive slump before they won last week, have played in 4 under games this season, seeing the rest go over. With most games going over, including last weeks when they edged the Titans 30-28 the line has been set a bit high, and again I say, there is value in this.
Indianapolis has been gifting teams points in recent weeks, and the reason for that is turnovers. The big surprise is that the teams most valuable player, QB Peyton Manning, is responsible for a lot of those turnovers. How long can a skid last for a player of his quality? Who knows? But if you're going to bet, you'd have to go against it, because he is right up there with the best in terms of what the NFL has to offer. This is a particularly good spot, as Peyton had a good game last week, and more importantly, the team got the monkey off their backs and finally won. Now, they're back home, and about to play a divisional rival.
So far, Indianapolis has played at home 5 times, and the Under has hit 3 times. That's 60%. The scoring in this game will depend on how the two teams come out to play, what their attitude will be and what their game-plan will entail.
Both teams need to win, because both have records that aren't very good. Cautiousness will be topmost for these two teams and they will play to their strengths. The Jags will try and keep possession to keep Manning and his quick fire offence the hell off the field and in order to do that they will run the ball, for that is what they do best. The Colts have made too many mistakes recently, and cannot afford to make them here. They will go back to basics for this one and try and minimise mistakes, meaning no dangerous risky plays, and hence probably limited quick fire attacks.
BETTING VERDICT
This is not going to be a shoot out, count on it. Both teams will try and maintain possession and that will lead to a total that falls well below the posted total. Take the Under.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Under 49 points to be scored
