ENG. CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING PICK - SWANSEA CITY V MILLWALL

Eng. Championship

2010-12-10 - Swansea City vs Millwall

A Sports Betting Pick by Caged

Another short priced favourite in the other game in the Championship this weekend as 3rd place Swansea City bid to take 2nd spot from rivals Cardiff when they entertain newly promoted Millwall

Swansea City

3rd Place

Home Record W6 D2 L2 GF13 GA4

We had a 4/1 winner by opposing Swansea at home to Portsmouth two weeks ago, and again we see the Swans at odds on on a Friday night.
Dont get me wrong Swansea should win this. Theyve won 6 of 8 games at home this year whilst Millwall arent pulling up any trees. They welcome back key defender Garry Monk to a defence that was virtually impregnable with him in situ, and they will be highly motivated to bounce back in front of their home fans.

However, this is the Championship, and this is a Friday night game in the Championship. Normal rules dont apply here – these games are favourite graveyards.

There are two problems with backing Swansea at odds on here. One is they dont score enough goals, for a team that are hoping to take second place this weekend they have a distinctly mid table goals for average. New loan signing Jermaine Easter is unlikely to move any mountains on that front. Two is that theyve lost 2 of the last 3 at home, and they were to basement dwellers Bristol City and Portsmouth.

Millwall

11th Place

Away Record W3 D3 L4 GF9 GA10

What chances of Millwall then? After winning 3 of 4 back in the Championship following promotion the goals dried up for Millwall and they went on a bit of a dip in form. Theyve won 2 of the last 3 however, seeing off a Scunthorpe last weekend and winning at Middlesboro two weeks before.

On the road Millwall are a very mixed bag, and their wins have come against the bottom sides. This doesnt bode well for a trip to the Liberty Stadium. But Jackett is improving his firepower with loan signings like Puncheon and McQoid and will also know of any deficiencies in Swanseas Garry Monk as he actually signed him for Swansea in his previous job.

Once again you need to take more than a little bit of a leap of faith for this one. All the stats point to a really tough game for Millwall and a home win. They are rightly underdogs. But in the long term you will lose money backing these odds on shots in Friday night Championship games. Results this year suggest one of the odds on shots will fail this Friday, its a case of guessing which one. At the end of the day Id rather be on the visitors at big prices, no matter how unlikely it looks.

Head to Head

A very even W1 D1 L1 between the sides here.
2008-03-07 Swansea 1-2 Millwall
2006-10-22 Swansea 2-0 Millwall
2001-02-11 Swansea 0-0 Millwall

Team News

Skipper Garry Monk is expected to return in the centre of Swanseas defence.
Loan striker Jermaine Easter faces a late fitness test on a thigh injury, and Tom Butler is out with his thigh problem.

Millwall midfielder Liam Trotter also faces a late test, whilst striker Kevin Lisbie is hoping to return.

The Pick :

---