Eng. Championship
2010-11-29 - Leicester City vs Nottingham Forest
A Sports Betting Pick by Caged
Its the battle of the East Midlands as Sven Goran Erikssons upwardly mobile Leicester City face rejuvenated neighbours Nottingham Forest.Leicester City
19th Place
Home Record W4 D3 L2 GF12 GA9
Results have certainly improved under the new management of Sven Goran Eriksson, as they should when you consider the players he has brought in.
Five wins from eight is a marked improvement on early season relegation form. Eriksson wasted no time or expense recruiting Premiership experience and quality in the likes of Curtis Davies and Darius Vassell, whilst new signings Chris Kirkland and Roman Bednar are expected to take their bows tonight. Both are top quality signings at this level.
Despite this, Leicester havent quite been as convincing as they would have hoped. They left Ashton Gate cursing bad fortune and injustice at the weekend as they lost to struggling Bristol City, but it isnt the first time they have let favourite backers down. They also struggled to a 2-2 draw with 20th placed Sheffield United at home at very short prices.
The new signings will undoubtedly improve them, but it often takes a bit of time for new signings to bed in and perform optimally.
Leicesters biggest problem appears to be the fitness of top scorer Andy King. Whilst he is expected to be passed fit, if he isnt the seven goals he has contributed from midfield may be sorely missed.
Leicester are strong at home with four wins from seven and beat Forest in this fixture last year, and for these reasons the 2.3 about the home side will tempt plenty in.
I make this pretty much the right price for the home side, and as such cant recommend them as a bet. But its a brave man who backs against them with the quality players at their disposal, braver than me.
Also worth noting is that the Leicester price has contracted over the course of Monday, from 2.3 into around 2.2. Those who like to follow a steamer should keep an eye on that. Does someone know something?
Nottingham Forest
9th Place
Away Record W2 D4 L3 GF9 GA10
Billy Davies continued and public demands for the clubs acquisition panel to back him has had some success with the loan signings of striker Marcus Tudgay and the eye catching capture of Arsenal midfielder Aaron Ramsey. Both are expected to play a part in tonights game, however you have to imagine that Ramsey is rusty after so long out and Tudgay hasnt been a regular starter at Wednesday.
Forest have only been beaten three times this season and come into this match on the back of a stunning 2-0 win at 2nd place Cardiff, so they will fancy their chances of getting something from their near neighbours.
However they have plenty of injury concerns, they will definitely miss strikers Blackstock and McGoldrick and list captain McKenna and striker Earnshaw amongst their doubtful.
In positive news, they are expected to welcome back defender Kelvin Wilson who was interesting Celtic in the summer, and striker Nathan Tyson.
And in Lewis McGugan, they have a midfielder with 9 goals in 16 games. One for goalscorer backers to keep an eye on, especially as with Blackstock out he may be on penalties.
Head to Head
League meetings in the last ten years at Leicester have seen the home side win twice (including a 3-0 win last season) and lose once.
Summary
Forests problem is that they draw a lot of games, 50% in fact. Both sides are good enough to avoid defeat here, and are averaging around one goal scored and conceded per game Statistically, derby games see a lot of draws.
In a very trappy affair between two closely matched sides, the value call is probably the stalemate.
The Pick :
Leicester 1 Nottingham Forest 1
