NFL FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - GREEN BAY PACKERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

NFL Football

2010-11-28 - Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
Football : United States : NFL : Week 12
Sunday 28 November 2010 - Kickoff 1pm ET
6pm (British Standard Time)

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Atlanta Falcons (8-2)

The Atlanta Falcons must be able to feel the breath of the New Orleans Saints right behind them as they enter this game with a 0.5 game lead over the reigning SuperBowl champions in the NFC South. The Falcons also lead the entire NFC with their record and will see this as another chance to get a step closer to winning home field advantage throughout the Play Offs.

Matt Ryan is once again displaying the kind of QB performance that has him close to the elite performers in the NFL and he has led the Falcons to 8 wins in their last 9 games. Ryan is averaging 275 yards through the air during this latest 4 game winning run, tossing 9 TD passes and only 1 Interception. Atlanta are averaging 31.5 points per game in their last 4 games.

The Defense is playing its part too, tied for 2nd in the NFL for Interceptions at 15 this season. They are also 2nd in the League for turnover margin at + 10 and are 17-1 when winning the turnover battle in games. Matt Ryan is now 18-1 at home since becoming a starter, winning his last 14 outings there.

Another player who enjoys playing at home is Michael Turner. Since signing from the San Diego Chargers, he is averaging over 100 yards a game and has 22 Rushing TDs in 18 home games. Turner may be looking forward to facing the Packers who have allowed an average of 119 yards on the ground in their last 5 games.

Green Bay Packers (7-3)

The Green Bay Packers have moved into the position many expected them to be as the 'dark horse' pick to win it all this season. They are currently tied for the lead in the NFC North with the Chicago Bears, but are behind them thanks to a head to head record. However, with 6 games left this season, the Pack will be looking at winning the entire NFC let alone their Division.

Green Bay are very similar to Atlanta in terms of an effective Offense coupled with an opportunistic Defense. Aaron Rodgers has made everyone forget about Brett Favre, especially by demolishing the Minnesota Vikings twice this season, and has had to do it with a limited running game. The Packers are averaging 28 points per game during their last 4 games.

Rodgers played brilliantly last week at Minnesota, and he has improved to throwing 9 TD passes to 2 Interceptions during the last 4 games. Greg Jennings is playing like one of the best WRs in football, scoring 6 TDs in his last 5 games and securing over 500 yards.

The Defense has tightened things up considerably as they deal with a number of injuries that had hit them. The unit has limited teams to just 10 points combined in their last 3 games and have created 9 takeaways. The Packers are tied with Chicago for the best scoring Defense in the NFL, allowing an average of just over 14 points per game.

Head to Head

The two teams have played 5 times in the last 10 years, but they have only met once in Atlanta in the last 18 years.

The last time they played here was in 2005, Green Bay coming out in a shootout by 33-25. Their last meeting overall was in Green Bay, this time Atlanta winning 27-24.

Both teams are 3-2 against the spread at home and on the road respectively.

Prediction

This game has so many important ramifications associated with it and could be a fun way to spend the afternoon moving into the evening. Atlanta have been very strong at home ever since Matt Ryan took over the QB position and made it his own and I will say it will be difficult for any team to come here and win.

In saying that, the Green Bay Offense is powerful enough to hang with the Falcons and this is what makes the game so interesting. The Falcons are an opportunistic Defense, but they can be scored on and this may give the Cheeseheads at the game some hope.

Even though Green Bay's Defense has an edge, I think the Falcons are one of the best Offenses they have faced in a while and it will be difficult for them to be stopped as they are so balanced.

I am finding it hard to pick a winner here, but I imagine the game to be high scoring, and so I am going to pick the Over 46.5 Points total available.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

I'll take a shot at the Over 46.5 Points (Ladbrokes)