NFL Football
2010-11-22 - Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Football : United States : NFL : Week 11
Monday 2 November 2010 - Kickoff 8:30pm ET
1:30am (British Standard Time)
San Diego Chargers (4-5)
The Chargers are well accustomed to this position. They find themselves 1.5 games behind Kansas City in the AFC West, but it is the Chargers who have the momentum as they look to track down and overtake the Chiefs on the way to winning the West again. It is imperative for the Chargers to win this game as they are currently 0-2 within the Division.
Much of their success has come through the arm of Philip Rivers, even without his top receivers for many of their games. Rivers has thrown 2944 yards this season to lead the NFL and is on course to at least challenge Dan Marino's all time record of 5084 in a season. The QB has been missing big targets like Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates all missing stretches of the season or the entire season so far in the case of Jackson.
There may be better news for Rivers this week. Both Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee are expected to return to bolster his receiving corps. Antonio Gates is possibly out again after missing the win over Houston in Week 9.
The Chargers Defense is allowing 185 yards per game through the air but are expecting a stiffer test against the pass happy Denver Offense.
Denver Broncos (3-6)
Denver did themselves, as well as Oakland and San Diego, a huge favour last week by routing Kansas City at home and move to just 2.5 games behind the leaders of the Division. However, the Josh McDaniels era has not been enjoying their most pleasant season and the win did relieve some of the pressure building on the Head Coach.
The Broncos have their own passing superstar in Kyle Orton and that is something I never thought I would call him when watching him QB the Bears. However, Orton has flourished in this Offense, partly due to their inability to run the ball, and he is ranked at 2nd in the NFL with 2806 yards thrown. Last season he had a career high 3800 yards through the air and is poised to surpass that this season.
Denver may also use the inside knowledge of Jamal Williams who they signed from San Diego in the offseason. He will attempt to pass on his experience of the play calls of the Chargers in an effort to help the Defense slow them down.
The Broncos had lost 4 in a row before the win last week over the Chiefs.
Head to Head
The teams have split their season series in each of the last 2 seasons, but it was San Diego that had control before that with 4 straight wins.
Denver won here last season by 11 points during their 6-0 opening to the season before losing down the stretch at Mile High. The Broncos had also been beaten 3 times in a row here before that win, losing the games by 31, 20 and 28 points.
San Diego have a 6-1-1 record against the spread in their last 8 meetings in this series.
Both have losing records against the spread this season, San Diego going 4-5 and Denver going 3-6. The Chargers are 3-1 ATS at home and Denver are 1-3 ATS on the road.
Prediction
A Divisional rivalry can always be a contender to upset the apple cart and the Broncos would love to dent the Chargers post season hopes while also giving their own a real shot in the arm.
There should be a few points scored with both Offenses being more than able to move the chains through the air. However, I think the Chargers have the edge in Defensive schemes as well as the Rushing Offense. This should give them a few more chances to gain short fields and keep the Denver Defense on the field for longer.
Kyle Orton has played well for Denver, and I would not be surprised if he surpasses 250 yards through the air again, but it could be tough for him to maintain the Broncos in a shootout, and I feel the Chargers will be able to secure the win in the 4th Quarter through effective running.
I'll take the Chargers minus the points to continue putting the pressure on Kansas City in the AFC West.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
San Diego Chargers 34-24 Denver Broncos
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take my chances with San Diego Chargers -9 Points to win and cover the spread
