NCAA Football
2010-11-19 - Fresno State at Boise State
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : United States : NCAA Football
Friday, November 19th, 2010 - Kickoff 9:30PM ET
(2:30AM GMT)
FRESNO STATE (6-3)
A 6-3 record is nothing to be sniffed at, but Fresno will be running out onto the famous blue turf in Idaho to take on Boise State, who are ranked #3 in the country and boast a 9-0 record.
This is still a WAC rivalry game, and the Fresno State Bulldogs sit 4th in the conference, with a 4-2 record against WAC rivals. They played rivals Nevada last week and despite fighting very hard, they ultimately went down, losing by the excruciating scoreline of 35-34. That loss ended a 3 game winning streak, and I can't see them starting another winning streak here. Neither does the oddsmaker, who has the Boise State Broncos priced as 30 point favourites!
Still, Fresno State haven't exactly been bent over by those standards if you look at their recent games against Boise. They have lost 8 of the last 9 in the series, but last year the final score was 51-34 to Boise (17 points). I'm not so sure Fresno should just be written off here. They're not a live dog, but they are not going to roll over once the game is finished as a contest. The backdoor cover will be on seeing as it's a conference rivalry.
#3 BOISE STATE (9-0)
9-0 to start yet another season for Boise State. They want into that BCS championship game so bad they can taste it. This team has a lot to prove, and really want their accomplishments to be recognised. Boise are currently riding a 23 game winning streak. That's the longest active streak in the country right now!
The defence for Boise will really have to do well to keep Fresno out because if Louisiana Tech can score on Boise State, then Fresno certainly can. Robbie Rouse, the running back for the Bulldogs, registered back to back 200 yard rushing games in that narrow loss to Nevada, and compliments their QB Ryan Colburn by also receiving some of his passes for scores.
Scoring is the one area that is never a problem for Boise State, especially at home. The Broncos still have QB Kellen Moore tearing teams apart through the air and with the success Colin Kaepernick had last week throwing for Nevada, I have no doubt Boise run up some serious points here too.
BETTING VERDICT
I reckon both teams will score in this one, but I feel the spread is 2 points too much and so the value, for me, is in the underdog. Take Fresno State +30
The Pick :
Fresno State to cover the large spread
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Fresno State +30 to stay close @ 1.95 (Pinnacle)
