Spanish La Liga
2010-11-20 - Villarreal vs Valencia
A Sports Betting Pick by Caged
Villarreal
3rd Place
Home Record W5 D0 L0 GF13 GA1
Anyone who saw Villarreals defeat in the Camp Nou last weekend cant fail to have been impressed. They may have lost 3-1 but they gave the Champions a hell of a lot of problems and at half time the Champions came off venting their frustrations at the referee. If it wasnt for a half time cooling off and Messi doing what he does best the yellow submarine could easily have got something out of a ludicrously entertaining game.
It doesnt get any easier for Villarreal as its near neighbours Valencia next, but they will fancy their chances against a team they have beaten 6 of the last 7 times at El Madrigal.
Villarreal boast the joint best home record in the division and the third best goalscoring record having scored a massive six more goals from their 11 games than Valencia have. In Rossi they have a superb forward, and in Nilmar they have a finisher who can convert the chances he creates.
Anytime goalscorers could do a lot worse than back Brazilian Nilmar at 6/4, he has scored in six of Villareals eleven league games this year but should be wary of backing him to score first.
For a team sitting nicely in third place, the yellow submarine have conceded first in a surprising 6 of their 11 games.
That would be a worrying stat against a team the quality of Valencia, but Villarreal have showed plenty of character in adversity so far this year, and have only lost 2 of the six games where they have conceded first. This does make it torth thinking about waiting to back them in play instead of in advance of the game – patience may reward you with getting these slow starters at a better price.
Valencia
4th place
Away Record W3 D0 L2 GF8 GA6
They may be sat in fourth place but that is more through lack of competition than any great ability. Emery is doing the best he can with the resources available to him but this is not a vintage Valencia side and the bookies are starting to catch on to that fact.
Despite the fire sales of the last few years and the loss of Silva and Villa in the summer Valencia were still being priced up on reputation rather than form. Now they are starting to be priced up more in line with their actual ability, and there will be plenty who will be tempted by odds of nearly 3/1 for a team with a reputation like Valencia.
However I think considering Los Ches record at El Madrigal, and their current poor run of form, a shade of odds against for the home side are about right. Theyve only won one of the last six in the league and have a really poor record against top six sides over the last few years.
Not only that, but they have a crunch Champions League tie to think about in midweek. Bursaspor at home may look like a gimme, but they cant make any mistake as Rangers arent quite dead yet and Los Che have Man United away in their last game. In recent years Valencia have been able to handle the demands of dual domestic/champions league campaigns, but results this year suggest they dont have the squad strength and depth to deal with it.
It may not scream value but it should pay to side with the yellow submarine at El Madrigal.
Head to Heads
Villarreal have won six of the last seven at El Madrigal and have won all six by a two goal margin.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Villarreal 3 Valencia 1
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Villareal -1 goal asian handicap at 3.01 at PinnacleSports
