NFL Football
2010-11-18 - Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Football : United States : NFL : Week 11
Thursday 18 November 2010 - Kickoff 8:20pm ET
1:20am (British Standard Time)
Miami Dolphins (5-4)
Barring a horrible call by the referees in a recent home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami could have been completely involved in the AFC Play Off race. As it happens, they are on the periphery of getting involved as they sit 3rd in the AFC East and are 2 games behind the New England Patriots and New York Jets.
This also seems to be a good time to be playing the Dolphins who had a really tough win over the Tennessee Titans here on Sunday. The win did not come without casualties as Chad Pennington and Chad Henne both left the game with serious injuries. That means that 3rd QB Tyler Thigpen will be given the start today. Further injuries hit Jake Long, maybe the premier LT in the NFL and Cameron Wake, the Miami Sack leader on the Defense. The latter two are both expected to start.
Miami have been struggling Offensively all season, leading to the dropping of Henne last Sunday, and they did average the AFC low 17.9 points per game. There have also been rumours of unrest for star signing Brandon Marshall this season who has only 1 TD so far.
Thigpen did well when he came to play, leading an impressive 64 yard drive and helped Miami to their season high 29 points in one game. I also expect further use of the Wildcat formation that had failed to work all season until the game with Tennessee.
Chicago Bears (6-3)
This is a real chance for the Bears to put some pressure on their rivals in the NFC North as a win here would see them move 0.5 games into the lead over the Green Bay Packers. The Packers would then need to win in Minnesota to avoid falling behind. The Thursday night schedule is especially tough for the road team, but the Bears are 3-1 on the road so far this season.
Chicago have won both games they have played this month and will look to their tough Defense to lead the way in this game. The Defense has held teams to just over 16 points per game (2nd in the NFL), have allowed 311 total yards (4th in the NFL) and currently lead the League with 24 Turnovers, including 3 more against Minnesota last Sunday.
More worrying for the rest of the NFC North is that there seems to be some chemistry back in the Offense and Special Teams too. Chicago gained their most total yards on Offense since Week 1 against Minnesota and once again limited the opponents to just 1 sack on Jay Cutler for a second week in a row. That is a success when considering he had been sacked just under 6 times a game on average in 4 games in October.
The Bears are 4th in the NFL on kick and punt returns and will be looking to take advantage of a Miami team that is ranked at 30th in opponent kick returns.
Head to Head
These 2 teams last met in 2006 when the Dolphins went into Soldier Field and ended the Bears unbeaten start to the season with a 31-13 win. Chicago went on to reach the SuperBowl that season.
Interestingly, Miami are 6-25 against the spread in home games where they have been tabbed as the favourites.
The 'Under Total Points' has come in 59-28-2 in the last 89 games where the Bears have been the underdog. However that same category is 1-10-1 in Miami's last 12 home games.
Prediction
This is really a close game to call and it is no surprise to me that the game is virtually a pick 'em contest. Miami are really suffering with injuries to the QB position which concerns people as they are coming up against one of the most opportunistic and tough Defenses in the League.
On the other hand, Miami are able to generate a pass rush with their own Defense, something Minnesota and Buffalo (Chicago's last 2 opponents) are not known for this season and it is less of a surprise that they only got to Cutler twice between them. Miami will opt for exotic blitz packages that have been known to confuse Cutler earlier this season.
I expect we will see Miami trying to run the ball a lot more to try and control the Bears Defense and they do not want to get behind and allow Julius Peppers to pin his ears back and rush Thigpen, particularly with Jake Long being less than 100%
The Bears in the Mike Martz Offense will look to air the ball, but I think the Dolphins can have some success in slowing them down especially if Cameron Wake starts as he is expected to.
As I said, its a tough game to call and I cant pick a winner between the two. Instead, I will look to pick the 'Under 39.5 Points' total for this game. I can see Miami playing with a lot of clock management and both Defenses have played well for the most part this season.
Both Offenses have had their issues in converting drives into TDs and have been forced to hit FGs, both having good kickers in Dan Carpenter (Miami) and Robbie Gould (Chicago).
I would not be surprised if this is a low scoring game decided by a late FG in the 4th Quarter.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Miami Dolphins 17-14 Chicago Bears
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll take the 'Under 39.5 Points' for this game (Ladbrokes)
