NBA Basketball
2010-11-16 - LA Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
United States: NBA Basketball
Tuesday 16 November 2010 - Tip-Off 8pm ET
1am (British Standard Time)
Preview
The way some people are talking about the LA Lakers (8-2), you could be forgiven for thinking they had lost 8 of their first 10 games, not just the last 2 after making their fastest start in over 20 years. Some had believed a 70 win season was potentially in the offing for the Lakers, but defeats at Denver and at home to Phoenix has changed some perceptions on their team as they embark on a 3 game road trip. First up is the Milwaukee Bucks (5-5).
The Lakers will be hoping they can return to winning ways as they continue leading the NBA in points per game while surpassing the 100 point mark for the 9th time this season in their latest loss. The defeat saw them allow 22 3 point shots from the Phoenix Suns, the 2nd highest in NBA history and were still in the game in the 4th Quarter.
LA are averaging 112.5 points per game this season and Kobe Bryant is 3rd in the NBA in average points, going at 25.2 per game. Lamar Odom hurt his foot in the game against the Suns but will be expected to play.
Milwaukee will be well aware of the scoring potential the Lakers possess, but will also feel confident for themselves as one of the top Defensive teams in the NBA. They are currently holding teams to a league best 89.4 points per game and will need all of that ability if they are to pull the W here as they are only scoring 92.1 points per game themselves.
The Defense has not allowed any player to score 30 points on them this season, while only 3 players have equalled or surpassed Kobe Bryant's average of 25 points this season. They have only allowed 1 team to score 100 points or more, and that was Boston in a game that went to OT.
The Bucks held Golden State to just 72 points in their last contest and will need more of the same if they are to beat the Lakers.
Head to Head
The Lakers have now won 5 straight games in the series between the two teams, while Kobe Bryant has an impressive 21-4 career record against the Bucks.
Milwaukee have lost their last 2 home games against LA, but have kept games close in the series in recent games. The Bucks are 7-1-1 against the spread in recent games while the underdog is 11-2-1 against the spread in the series.
The Bucks have generally been underrated in their recent games, going 40-18-3 against the spread in their last 61 games.
Prediction
Milwaukee are definitely one of the stronger teams in the Eastern Conference but I feel they have a few issues on the Offense. Against the lesser teams, this is less of a concern as their Defense can take control and help them through games, but against the elite teams this is not so easy.
The LA Lakers are in a good place, even after losing consecutive games, and they feel confident in what they are trying to achieve. They have one of the deeper squads in the NBA and get plenty of solid production from their bench.
Kobe Bryant's team may have lost a couple of close ones recently, but I think they have too much power Offensively for the Bucks, and I will take the strong Offensive team over the strong Defensive team here.
I'll take the Lakers minus the points.
The Pick :
Milwaukee Bucks 92-99 LA Lakers
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take the LA Lakers -3 Points to win and cover
