Spanish La Liga
2010-10-30 - Hercules vs Real Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
Match Analysis :
Real Madrid form has been sensational despite drawing in the Copa Del Ray against Murcia. Since Jose Mourinho took over, Real Madrid have not lost a single competitive game and have not conceded more than a goal in any game, a fantastic record for a team which used to leak goals in.
Real Madrid are the clear favourites on paper while Hercules are the clear underdogs. However despite being newly promoted and are underdogs in most games, Hercules have already defeated Barcelona and Sevilla this season and drew with Villarreal. Therefore this is not a walk in the park for Mourinho’s side BUT Real Madrid are starting to click and Ronaldo is in sensational form.
Mourinho is likely to recall Ozil, Xabi Alonso, Carvalho and Marcelo into the starting line up as they were all rested in midweek. Higuain and Di Maria who were both on the bench in midweek are also likely to regain their place in the starting line up.
Hercules on the other hand is facing reality after winning against Barcelona in the opening weeks of the season. Since that win against Barcelona, Hercules only managed one other win in six games, and that win came against Sevilla.
Hercules have draw their last three games but the good news is, the home side will welcome back David Trezeguet from suspension while Nelson Valdez has recovered from his injury. However, with on loan Royston Drenthe ineligible, Hercules might have to reshuffle their formation.
The home side will be banking on former World Cup and European Winner David Trezeguet to get them the goals as the Frenchman have been a crucial player since joining them from Juventus. The combination of Nelson Valdez playing as an attacking midfielder behind Trezeguet has scored all of Hercules goals this season.
Head To Head :
This is the first time both sides have met in the League since 1997. In their last two meetings that year, Real Madrid won on both occasion with a 3-0 and 3-2 score line. Since then, Hercules was never promoted to top flight football.
The more recent meeting both these side came in this season in a pre-season match where Madrid won the game 3-1. In addition, Real Madrid have not lost away to Hercules in their last 19 visits in all competition.
Asian Handicap Analysis :
Under the AH line this season, Hercules have won one out of their four games at home, drawing one and losing two. The win came against Sevilla, while both losses came against Valencia and Athletic Bilbao.
On the other hand, Real Madrid have only managed to payout one out of their four games on the road this season under the asianhandicap line. The only profit came against Malaga in their last away game after losing consecutively on the handicap against Mallorca, Real Sociedad and Levante.
The Betting Verdict :
Hercules have been labelled as giant killers as they have already taken points from Barcelona, Sevilla and Villarreal. However, under Mourinho, Real Madrid are a much improved side and the Portuguese will not accept a setback against Hercules as a win would keep them on top of the League for another week.
The combination of Higuain up front supported by Ronaldo, Ozil and Di Maria has improved significantly in recent weeks. The once “goal-shy” team are now a scoring machine, scoring 16 times in their last three league games.
With Ronaldo in the form of his life, do expect the Portuguese to cause problem for this Hercules defense. The major problem for home side is they lack quality apart from David Trezeguet and Nelson Valdez. Hercules scored 8 goals this season in the league and their only goal scorers have been Trezeguet and Nelson.
The combination of Xabi Alonso and Sami Khedira/ Diarra is likely to get the better of Nelson Valdez in midfield. The South America will have to work his shoes off and Trezeguet will find it difficult to beat Pepe or Carvalho.
With the handicap at -1.5 for Real Madrid, my money is on the away side to claim all three points.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Hercules 0-2 Real Madrid
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Real Madrid to win @ 1.35 (Banker Bet)Take Real Madrid to keep a clean sheet (Main Bet)
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Consider trying Real Madrid to cover the -1.5 head start. (Side Bet)
