Spanish La Liga
2010-10-30 - Valencia vs Zaragoza
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
Match Analysis :
After a flying start to the campaign, Valencia suffered to back to back defeats against Barcelona and Mallorca and saw them dropped from first to forth in the League, four points being leaders Real Madrid.
With Emery seeking home comfort, Emery is likely to set out a more offensive side against Zaragoza as Zaragoza have been by far the worst team in the League this season. With Valencia needing to bounce back, this would be a perfect opportunity as Emery has home advantage as well as playing a relatively easy opponent.
The positive news from the Valencia camp is Cesar is expected to return in goal after missing their last two games. In his absence, Valencia have lost on both occasion. Apart from that, their comfortable midweek win in the Copa Del Ray would put some confidence back into the side after losing back to back in the league.
As for Zaragoza, there is not much positive news or signs coming out from their camp. Without a win since the start of the season, Zaragoza will have to take on Valencia without their top goal scorer Florent Siname-Pongolle who is out injured while Leo Franco is doubtful for the game.
Zaragoza have also been very negative in their approach. They have either started with a 5-4-1 formation or a 4-5-1 formation. With Zaragoza not creating anything up front, it will be difficult for them to hold out opponents the entire game. Therefore if they wish to have a fighting chance, they will have to score at least once but it is highly unlikely to Siname-Pongolle out.
Head To Head :
Recent head to head suggest that Zaragoza have will find it hard to defeat Valencia. In their last 10 meetings, Zaragoza have only won once, drawing on five occasion while Valencia have won the remaining four games.
The last time Zaragoza got anything away from the Mestalla came four years ago when Zaragoza managed to draw with Valencia 2-2. It has been three tips to the Mestalla since Zaragoza last taken any points away.
Asian Handicap Analysis :
Under the AH line this season, Valencia have managed to win only one out of their four home games, drawing once and losing twice. The only win came against Athletic Bilbao while both defeats came against Mallorca and Atletico Madrid.
On the other hand, Zaragoza also have similar record to Valencia on the handicap line. Zaragoza have also managed one win out of their four away games, drawing once and losing twice on the handicap line. The only win came against Deportivo La Coruna in the opening week of the season.
The Betting Verdict :
It will be difficult for rock-bottom Zaragoza to get anything out of this game as Valencia needs a win badly following from their back to back defeat. With Zaragoza only scoring once in their four away games, it is unlikely that Zaragoza will cause too much problem Valencia. Therefore, should Valencia score early, it is highly unlikely Zaragoza has what it takes to get themselves back into the game.
With Valencia no longer relying on individuals but rather team work, I do expect Valencia to cut open this poor away side. Roberto Saldado and Aritz Aduriz are likely to lead the lines and I do expect the duo to cause havoc for this relegation-bound side.
With the handicap at -1, my money is on the home side to take all three points. Valencia might just win this game by a single goal margin but I fancy them to cover the head start as Zaragoza have really been poor. However an alternative would be under 2.5 goals.
The Statistics :
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BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Valencia to win @ approx 1.50 (Main Bet)Or Consider trying under 2.75 goals as an alternative.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Valencia to cover the -1 ball head start
