English Premier
2010-10-31 - Aston Villa vs Birmingham City
A Sports Betting Pick by ArmchairPunter
Football : England : Premier League
Sunday 31st October 2010 - Kickoff
It's the match all Brummies have been waiting for - this season's eagerly awaited clash between the two sides of Birmingham, with The Blues having to make the short trip across Aston into enemy & Villa territory.
Aston Villa (10th)
Villa will no doubt be buoyed by their recent display against Chelsea, holding the league leaders to a goalless draw at Villa Park. The Villains remain unbeaten at home so far, having won two and drawn two; wins against West Ham 3-0 and Everton 1-0 were followed up with two draws against Bolton Wanderers 1-1 and Chelsea 0-0 respectively.
They have only conceded 1 goal at home, second only to Chelsea who have yet to concede, while their home form stats read 2-2-0 5/1 - but still they only remain 1 point above their bitter rivals Birmingham City, which is down to their poor away form - currently 1-0-4 4/12.
In my opinion, Villa this season are nowhere near as potent a force as they were under Martin O'Neill (and I'm hoping my words don't come back to bite me here), but as I see it, Sunday's result will be hinging more on Birmingham's defensive qualities rather than Villa's attacking prowess.
Such are the quirks of the Premiership, a win for either side today could lift them to just outside the European places qualification and temporary safety, whilst a loss could well plunge one of the teams into the relegation zone territory. It's a must-not-lose fixture for both teams.
It must be a Birmingham trait, but goals have also been hard to come by at Villa Park this season as the home side have managed just 5 goals in front of their home faithful - the Villa leading scorer being winger Stewart Downing (beware messrs Carr & Ridgewell), while midfielders Ashley Young and Marc Albrighton (1 goal, 2 assists each) are also a threat.
And, do not forget striker Emile Heskey (1 goal, 1 assist) ex-Birmingham City and likely to pop up and bite the hand that used to feed him.
Petrov, Luke Young & Agbonlahor likely to be missing for Villa.
Birmingham City (12th)
The travelling Bluenoses must be in a better frame of mind going into this massive fixture following the 2-0 home win over Blackpool last weekend.
Alex McLeish's men halted their run of six matches without a win last Saturday, and are now on a two-match winning streak if you include the Carling Cup penalties win over Brentford - we'll take anything!
It's interesting to note that all of Birmingham's away matches so far have ended in over 2.5 goals; 2-2 at Bolton & Sunderland respectively, followed by 1-3 at West Brom (grrr) and 1-2 at Arsenal.
However, this is a Midlands derby, and with more than just pride at stake, I fancy it being another tight contest. It was good to see Kevin Phillips play the full 90 against Brentford (and score in the last minute) as Mcleish fielded a weakened side with the derby in his foremost thoughts.
You don't need me to bang on about The Blues players stats (or lack of them), but striker Nikola Zigic has now scored 2 in 2 games to shut me up, as he finally seems to be adjusting to Premiership life.
McFadden, Jerome & Beausejour likely to be missing for The Blues.
Head to Head
Looking at the head-to-heads, the last 10 meetings between the two sides have resulted in 5 under 2.5, and 5 over 2.5.
Villa have lost just once at home (back in December 2004 - God bless you Bruce!), whilst the last two previous meetings have both ended in a 1-0 scoreline (both in favour of Villa).
The Betting Verdict :
Villa Park used to be a high-scoring ground, but O'Neill has now departed and the goals have dried up - and Aston Villa host a Birmingham City side who will be desperate not lose to their rivals, but also find goals hard to come by ... plus it's a derby.
I can't decide on a straight winner, so I'm plumping for Under 2.5 Goals in a tight tussle.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Aston Villa 1-1 Birmingham City
BEST BETTING TIP :
Main Pick : Take Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.88 with bet365Side Bet: Consider Sending Off – Yes @ 3.60 with Betfair might be worth a few quid with Bowyer, Johnson & Ferguson in attendance
Keep Right On!
