Spanish La Liga
2010-10-16 - Atletico Madrid vs Getafe
A Sports Betting Pick by Caged
Football : Spain : Primera Division
Saturday 16th October 2010
ATLETICO MADRID
Quique Sanchez Flores had tamed the impossible beast. He has given the long suffering Atletico fans success. European Champions - Europa League and Super Cup. And he has turned around decades of underacheivement and soap opera in six months. A remarkable achievement.
He inherited a frankly shambolic collective of overhyped and underperforming individuals who didnt look like they could stop my dog scoring against them. And within months he had turned them into an organised, cohesive and competitive outfit who did what better teams than them couldnt do last season and make the Champions League winners look ordinary.
And on the back of that Atletico came into the season on a high and hit the ground running winning their first two games convincingly. People were starting to whisper about breaking the Spanish duopoly. Surely not?
No. As it always does if youre a Colchonero, it fell apart. Defeat to Barcelona at home in a match they usually win. Winded, they slumped to one win in four and seventh place in the standings.
And on the back of that form, they go into a match at home to a team who beat them 3-0 at the Calderon last season. Form and head to heads dont look good. They drift in the market, out to 1.83.
So what went wrong?
Nothing. Lets looks at those games they havent won. Barcelona at home. No shame there. A draw at the Mestalla after a late Valencia equaliser, no shame there either. Then they ran head first into a buzzing Sanchez Piquain and Sevilla's first game under long yearned for new coach Manzano. That can be excused too.
Lets also look at that 3-0 defeat at home to Getafe in May. It was sandwiched in between their Europa League final and their Copa Del Rey final. They werent even slightly interested in it - the bookies were pricing them up at 5.
Usual price for Atleti at home to Getafe is 1.67-1.75. We get them now at 1.83.
In simple terms, if you look at the basic facts then Atletico look vulnerable at odds on. But dig a little deeper, and the 1.85 for the home side looks bigger than it should be.
Aguerro and Dominguez are expected to remain out for Atletico as they welcome Madrids third club.
GETAFE
Getafe have an identical record to Atletico this season - W3 D1 L2. Decent form. We know that they play good football, and that theyve been scoring goals too, averaging 1.83 a game. But look at those fixtures and you'll see theyve only played top half opposition twice, and lost both times. Theyve conceded three at Espanyol, and two at goal shy Deportivo.
None of this bodes well for going into the Calderon to face Forlan, Reyes and Simao. Particulaly when the home side are desperate to get their Champions League qualification back on track.
What Getafe do have going for them is a decent record at the Calderon, with a W2 D2 L3 record which stands up well. Although not a fierce derby, this still does seem to make the game a little bit more level than it might be.
But when you've got a determined Atletico side under the organisation of Sanchez Flores, at better than usual prices against this opposition, I'd rather be on the favourites.
The Statistics :
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The Pick :
Atletico 2 Getafe 0
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Atletico Madrid @ 1.83 (bet365) MAIN BET
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Consider Atletico and accept the -0.75 goal handicap at 2.08 (bet365) as an ALTERNATIVE BET
