NCAA Football
2010-09-24 - TCU Horned Frogs at SMU Mustangs
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : United States : NCAA Football
Friday, September 24th, 2010 - Kickoff 8:00PM ET
(1:00PM GMT)
#23 TCU Horned Frogs
TCU come into the battle for the Iron Skillet having won all their 4 games this season, and are actually on a 17-0 streak in regular season games. They have dumped on their first 4 opponents this season, outscoring them by 99 points combined. Understandably, they are heavy favourites, with the number at 17.5.
Last year the Horned Frogs ripped SMU apart 39-14, giving coach Gary Patterson a 7-1 record against the Mustangs. The offence is red hot again, with QB Andy Dalton shining particularly brightly. Last week, against Baylor, he completed 21 of 23 for almost 270 yards scoring 2 touchdowns via Jeremy Kerley.
On the ground, TCU racked up nearly 300 yards, with Ed Wesley putting on 165 just by himself over 19 carries. A pair of touchdowns iced that cake for him. The offence ranks in the top 10 coming into this one.
This gets more one-sided when you consider the defence. They rank 4th in yards allowed and 9th in points allowed. And the fact that they still didn't manage to register a fumble or interception last week means the odds of it happening just went up!
SMU Mustangs
The Mustangs went down 35-27 to Texas Tech in week 1 before coming back to beat UAB and Washington State. I'm not so convinced though. They're up against a very good defence here.
Coach June Jones is putting a lot of faith in QB Kyle Pardon. And I feel that with all his eggs seemingly in one basket, it might just get too easy for the TCU defence to do their job. Last week, Pardon threw 4 touchdown passes and ran 1 in himself as they won 35-21. Aldrick Patterson caught just 4 passes last week, but 3 of them were for touchdowns and he managed 111 yards. TCU will be keeping an eye on him.
The defence looks dodgy in my opinion, and I think they have benefitted from playing weaker sides. The TCU offence is just too potent and I think I'll leave it to say the defence will not be able to stop Dalton, and will hope their offence can keep up. They won't.
BETTING VERDICT
Did I mention that QB Dalton is the 3rd best rusher on his team? Yeah. So when he takes the snap, SMU have no idea whether he's about to burn them on the ground or through the air.
This is a rivalry, and it will get ugly. Take TCU to swap TLC for SNM with SMU.
The Pick :
TCU to win by 3 touchdowns
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take TCU to win - Add to all accumulators
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take TCU -17.5 points at 1.97 (-105)
