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2010-09-21 - Burnley vs Bolton Wanderers
A Sports Betting Pick by Caged
Turf Moor, Burnley
Football ; England : Carling Cup
Tuesday 21st September 2010 - Kickoff 7.45pm
Burnley
(Championship, 8th place)
Tin hats at the ready for Owen Coyle, his management team and striker Robbie Blake as they return to Turf Moor following recent and in some cases bitter moves to local rivals Bolton.
Of the relegated Premiership sides, Burnley were probably the best equipped to progress in the Championship this season. They refused to gamble on Premiership survival, and accepted the inevitable fate that awaited them once Coyle upped sticks half way through the season. Brian Laws was an uninspiring replacement however and he has some way to go to win over the disappointed Burnley support.
Burnley are strong at home. Three wins from three at home has led them to 8th place in the standings with seven played, albeit they haven't played anyone in form yet. Target man Chris Iwelumo is the focal point of the Burnley attack ably assisted by an in-form Jay Rodriguez, and they have struck 8 goals at home including 4 against local rivals Preston last weekend.
Burnley have a decent recent record in the Carling Cup, having won their last three home matches against Premiership opposition. These were under the management of Owen Coyle, however, who will be occupying the away dugout this time.
Bolton Wanderers
(Premier League, 13th place)
Changing a team's style is never easy but Owen Coyle appears to be having some success as he moulds long ball Bolton into an attractive side to watch. 13th place after five games is a reasonable return for the perennial strugglers, and a W1-D1-L1 away record isn't too shabby either. The 4-1 defeat at Arsenal looks bad, but Bolton were undone by the sending off of Gary Cahill at 2-1. They upset the odds getting a draw at Villa at the weekend, which should stand them in good stead for a trip to Turf Moor.
What I like about Bolton going into this game is that you don't expect Coyle to take any liberties with team selection. He will get a very hostile reception so I'm sure he will not want to put a team out that risks embarrassing him. Bolton look to be doing OK in the league, so a cup run wouldn’t do any harm financially or reputationally.
Also, Coyle has a good record in Cup competitions as a manager. He took some premiership scalps as Burnley manager in this competition, and produced a few shocks in the Scottish Cups at St Johnstone.
Head to Head
Bolton are unbeaten in nine games against Burnley, winning five of these matches.
The Betting Verdict
Bolton have the better squad quality and an up and coming Manager with a decent record in cup competitions. Expect a raw night in Lancashire as Coyle and co. return to the club they jilted.
Also expect there to be goals, this one could be similar to the Burnley 4 Preston 3 last weekend, especially as Bolton are ropey at the back. Burnley at Turf Moor are stiff test for anyone but at the prices the bet has to be Bolton.
The Pick :
Burnley 2-3 Bolton
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Bolton + 0 goals (level ball) asian handicap – the stake is returned in event of a draw
Bet strength 1/10
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Bolton + 0 goals (level ball) asian handicap – the stake is returned in event of a draw
Bet strength 1/10
Bet strength 1/10
