AFL Aussie Rules
2010-09-17 - Collingwood Magpies vs Geelong Cats
A Sports Betting Pick by Costanzo
AFL Aussie Rules : Australia : AFL Premiership
Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG), Melbourne
Friday, 17th September 2010 - Start 19:45 AEST
This game is considered by many as the grand final. These two teams are the best two in the league and I expect the winner to go on and claim the premiership the week after.
Geelong come in after giving the Dockers a hiding, while the Pies will be fresh after having a week of rest and their team looks at 100 percent.
Collingwood Magpies
The Maggies appear to be the best structured side in the league and it will be this structure that puts them in pole position to beat the Cats this on Friday night. They are blessed for depth and I think they will use their bench well in an attempt to run rings around the more experienced Geelong side.
Down in defence the Magpies are led by Simon Prestigiacomo. Presti has been a stalwart down back and his behind the scenes often goes unnoticed but he is the heart and soul of the Magpie. He will do a good job on the Cats’ main man and support will come from Harry O’Brien and Nick Maxwell. These two have been more than solid all season and with Heath Shaw providing run and carry off the half back line you can expect these men to make it tough for the Cats to have it all their way.
The midfield is where the battle will be won and the Magpies have really closed the gap that was so evident a year ago when these two met in the Preliminary final. Dane Swan should win the Brownlow this year and racks up disposals regardless of the pressure he is under. I think you can mark him down for 30 touches again and with the likes of Dale Thomas, Scott Pendlebury and even Alan Didak running through the centre the Pies will get plenty of quality ball use. Their rotations will make sure that no one will be tired and they will have the leg speed advantage through the middle. The only question is whether or not they will be able to use the ball well enough, but that hasn’t been a problem so far.
The Collingwood forward line will need to be accurate rather than wasteful against a Cats side that might punish them for missing easy shots at goal. Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes are the key targets that will test the Geelong backs and if these two take a few marks inside 50 expect some goals as a result. The smaller forwards like Dayne Beams, Sharrod Wellingham and Leon Davis will also need to help out on the scoreboard.
Geelong Cats
Geelong will be underdogs in this game for the first time since 2007 and it will be interesting to see how they handle things when the pressure is off them a little. Having said that their finals experience is second to none and they will be relying on handling the massive crowd of 100,000 with ease as having an edge on the Pies.
The defence will have a dilemma when it comes to naming a back 6. Last week Corey Enright and Joel Corey were instrumental in dictating play off half back and David Wojcinski was the man who offered some leg speed to an otherwise slow Cats midfield. Matty Scarlett, Harry Taylor and Darren Milburn are certainties and their big game experience will count for a lot, particularly if the game remains tight.
In the centre Jimmy Bartel was best afield last week against the Dockers and he is noted for performing in big matches. It will be the Ablett, Chapman, Selwood and Bartel quartet that Geelong will rely so heavily on. To beat the Pies at least 3 of these 4 need to have significant contributions on the match. They will need to use the ball well going forward and be ready for some intense pressure that the Pies are assured of bringing.
In the forward line the three keys are the small forwards in Steve
Johnson, Travis Varcoe and Matty Stokes. All three are exciting and Varcoe and Johnson can go into the centre to liven things up for a few minutes when the coach wants that. They will need contests from the big guys like Cam Mooney and James Podsiadly. These 5 players will all need to be on the scoreboard on Friday and that is to keep them in with a chance.
The best chance for the Cats to win is a wet contest.
The Betting Tip
As much as i hate to say this being a Cats fan, I would favour the Pies 60%-40%.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take the Collingwood Magpies to win by 1-24 points margin on Centrebet at 3.60.(Medium-High Stakes)
