NFL Football
2010-09-09 - Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
A Sports Betting Pick by Goober
Football : United States : NFL 2010/2011
Thursday, 9th September 2010 - Kickoff 8:30pm ET
The NFL season kicks off Thursday night with a great game. It's a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game as the Minnesota Vikings travel to play the Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints.
Last year's game ended 31-28 in overtime. It was a strange game as Minnesota dominated the game, outgaining the Saints 475 yards to 257. But Minnesota turned the ball over 5 times with 3 fumbles lost (fumbled 6 times in total, but recovered 3 of them) and 2 interceptions. The Saints only turned the ball over once.
There haven't been too many major changes for Minnesota. As expected, Brett Favre was a complete joke in the offseason, saying he was going to retire even though everyone knew he wouldn't. He just wanted to skip the first few practices, which is a good idea for the 76-year-old grandfather.
He will be without one of his favorite targets for the first half of the season as WR Sidney Rice had hip surgery just a few weeks ago. The other two main WRs Bernard Berrian and Percy Harvin both return, though Harvin has missed a lot of time with migraine headaches. Harvin is also a threat as a kick returner. The Vikings also added Greg Camarillo to help with the loss of Rice. He's a decent player, but not a star by any means.
The great Adrian Peterson will be the main RB again this year, but backup Chester Taylor has moved onto Chicago. Minnesota has brought in two rookies to the backup to Peterson now.
The Saints return most of their offensive playmakers as well. QB Drew Brees has proven to be one of the best. RBs Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush are a good tandem in the backfield. Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore will all catch plenty of passes from Brees.
The Saints will have several changes on the defensive side from last season. The biggest loss will be safety Darren Sharper, who is out for at least the first six games. Jonathan Vilma, the Saints leading tackler from last season, may also miss the game. Another starter from last year, Scott Fujita, moved on to Cleveland in the offseason.
From a betting perspective, Minnesota has covered the spread 7 of the last 8 games against New Orleans with 6 of those games being played in New Orleans. Minnesota is also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 opening games and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 overall. On the other hand, New Orleans is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games and lost 3 of their last 4 home games ATS last year.
This should be a very close game. I like Minnesota’s chances to pull off the upset, but I will be taking Minnesota +5 to cover for a close loss.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Minnesota 21, New Orleans 20
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Minnesota +5 to cover the spread
