EURO 2012 BETTING PICK - LITHUANIA V SCOTLAND

Euro 2012

2010-09-03 - Lithuania vs Scotland

A Sports Betting Pick by TonyS

Lithuania v Scotland
Football : International : Euro 2012 Qualifying
Firday, 3rd September 2010 - Kickoff 6:15pm BST

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Lithuania

As some of you may remember, I wrote in previous preview about situation in Lithuanian camp, so I'll try to remind in few sentences.

Lithuania has a new manager Raimundas Zutautas, who was good player but became a national team manager without any managing experience. And his first two games in charge were losses 4-0 to Ukraine and 2-0 to Belarus.

But he already told that Lithuanian team have big hopes and high expectations under his management. His aim is to collect 13-14 points in this qualifying group. So anything but a win, will shatter expected points goal.

Most Lithuanian players gathered in camp on Monday and started intensive preparation on Tuesday. Probably the first time in last few years players are not allowed to meet family and friends before the game and all minds are on the game and winning start in campaign.

Last qualifiers for Lithuania started very well, win away against Romania 3-0 and win at home against Austria 2-0. It is usual for Lithuanians to start with good results, but in spring they are much worse.

So far Lithuanians have all the best players available. In last few days three players made moves to new clubs and should be fully concentrated on the awaiting game and not worried about their future at club level.

Marius Stankevicius just signed new loan deal with Valencia, goalkeeper Arlauskis moved to Russian champions Rubin and striker Andrius Velicka moved to Aberdeen from Rangers. Though, last football season he missed through injury and still there are few questions about his form.

Previous friendly games in 2010 :
Lithuania – Estonia 2:0
Lithuania – Latvia 0:0
Ukraine – Lithuania 4:0
Lithuania – Belarus 0:2

Scotland

Scotland haven't qualified for the finals of World or European championship for ages and the last friendly game against Sweden in Stockholm did not add much confidence. The game was lost 3-0.

Craig Levein, the Scottish manager, has quite big problems with squad. Defenders Gary Caldwell, Andy Webster and Lee Walace will miss the game because of injuries. Levein even had to recall 40-years old David Weir, who should become oldest ever Scottish international on Friday.

Kevin Thompson, Alan Hutton and Kevin McNaughton are also unavailable, and Chris Iwelumo is doubtful.

But Scotland still have players to choose from in attack - Kris Boyd, who just moved to Middlesbrough, James McFadden, who scored couple goals against Lithuania already and Kenny Miller from Rangers, who is scoring goals for fun in Scottish Premier league.

And like Lithuanian manager said – "The biggest threat to our team in Darren Fletcher. He is one third of Scottish team strength."

Head to head

It’s fourth time then Lithuania and Scotland are drawn together in the same group of qualifiers. So far difficult to separate teams then playing in Lithuania.

One win for Scotland 2-1 in 2006, one win for Lithuania 1-0 in 2003 and a draw 0-0 in 1998. In Scotland, the Scots were superior – three wins from three.

The Betting verdict

At first I was surprised to see only 2.50 for home win. I was expecting about 3.00 for Lithuania, but bookies made Lithuanians favorites in the beginning of the week. Later odds drifted in favour of Scotland. I think it is difficult to separate those two teams and the match could go either way.

But having in mind that Lithuanians are preparing really seriously and I know that hosts will start game very offensive. They were punished for such style of play against Belarus, but also created not one chance to score themselves. Hopefully, against Scotland who are missing quite few regular defenders, the chances will be used.

Having Boyd and Miller upfront and knowing that Lithuanian defense is leaky, I expect Scotland to score as well. So my choice - quite open game and few goals.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

I’ll take over 2.25 goals at bet365.
Odds are really good in my opinion – 2.05.

Confidence 7/10

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