World Cup
2010-06-27 - Argentina vs Mexico
A Sports Betting Pick by Goober
Football : FIFA World Cup 2010 : Second Round
Sunday, 27th June 2010 - Kickoff 8;30pm local
One of the more intriguing Round of 16 matchups takes place Sunday at the great Soccer City Stadium in Johannesburg.
Argentina (3-0-0, 1st Place Group B)
Argentina was one of the most impressive teams during group play. They began with a 1-0 win over Nigeria that could have been 4-0 without great saves from the Nigerian keeper. They followed that with a very impressive 4-1 win over a good South Korea team and a 2-0 win over Greece with many of the regulars being rested.
Argentina has no suspensions and appears to have no major injury concerns other than Walter Samuel. They will no doubt return to their original starting lineup that included Messi, Tevez and Higuain.
Messi has been in good form despite not scoring yet. He has set up many of the goals and has hit the woodwork several times.
Many “experts” think Argentina’s back 4 could be their weakness in this tournament. That has not been the case as of yet. However, games against Nigeria and Greece may have concealed the problem. The only goal they allowed in three games was due to one horrible pass that gifted South Korea a goal just before halftime.
Mexico (1-1-1, 2nd Place Group A)
Mexico finished 2nd in Group A after a 1-0 loss to Uruguay on the final day. They were level on points with the hosts, but advanced on a superior goal differential.
Although Mexico has traditionally been very successful in getting out of the group stages, they have never made the quarterfinals on foreign soil.
Carlos Vela missed the Uruguay match, but has returned to training. But it has not been confirmed whether he will take part in this match. There are no suspensions for Mexico.
Mexico are well known for their ability to keep possession. One interesting thing to come from Mexico’s first 3 games was their ability (or inability) to turn possession into goals. They kept possession at almost a 60% rate against South Africa and Uruguay, but only gained 1 point from those two matches.
Mexico only managed about 40% ball possession against France, but won 2-0. The counterattack was the key to that win. Counter-attacking would not seem to be a winning strategy against Argentina.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
Argentina has dominated this matchup in the past. These two met in the 2006 World Cup, with Argentina winning 2-1 in extra time on a goal from Maxi Rodriguez.
Argentina also won 3-0 in the 2007 Copa America while Argentina also beat Mexico on penalties in the 2005 Confederations Cup.
The most recent Mexico win was in the 2004 Copa America (1-0).
PREDICTION
Mexico is a quality side and will be able to cause Argentina some problems, but will yet again be eliminated in the round of 16. They may catch Argentina once, but it won’t be enough.
The Pick :
Argentina 3-1 Mexico
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Argentina to win @ 1.50
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Argentina to cover the 1 goal head start.
