World Cup
2010-06-27 - England vs Germany
A Sports Betting Pick by Caged
Football : FIFA World Cup : Round of 16
Sunday 27th June 2010 - Kickoff 16.00 Local time
England (FIFA Rank 8)
So of course England did qualify from their group. But they did it the hard way and left themselves with by far the hardest potential run of opponents in the knockout stages.
England would probably need to beat Germany, Argentina and Spain to get to the final, where they would most likely face Brazil. No, its not going to happen. And yes, they only have themselves to blame.
Much has been made of Italy’s ageing squad as the Azzuri slumped to an ignominious exit. But England are older than Italy, and at times they have looked it.
Big reputation players like Rooney and Lampard haven’t turned up yet, and the top scorers in European qualifying look impotent in attack.
The performance and result against Slovenia may have been improved, but do we really think a nervy 1-0 win over the smallest nation in the tournament means we are now capable of beating Germany, the 6th best side in the World?
In team news Carragher will return from suspension so may return to the starting line-up in place of Upson who did OK against Slovenia, considering he’s a bit rubbish. There is talk of King returning, but that would be nearly as big a surprise as taking the crock in the first place.
Germany (FIFA Rank 6)
Germany came into this tournament completely written off by everyone except the odd nutter, and as usual they proved their doubters wrong with an opening game demolition of Australia.
Mesut Ozil announced his arrival on the World Cup stage with a bang and has looked quality ever since. The Germans then went down unluckily to Serbia, before rallying with a late winner against Ghana to seal qualification from the group.
The Germans have something beautiful that England do not, and that is movement. Germany are a younger side than England and what they lack in experience and big names they make up for with energy. They attack opposition central defences with pace and purpose, with the sort of give and go’s that England can only dream about replicating and have nightmares defending.
But despite this the German’s are patently beatable. Their centre backs look like they could be even worse than England’s, and there are plenty of question marks about their strikers.
Not only that, but their best two players Schweinsteiger and Ozil are big injury doubts. These two are so important to Germany it would be no surprise if they were pressed into action whether they are fit or not, but this problem cannot be understated.
Toni Kroos can come in who is a promising Bayern talent, but Germany were already short of central midfielders anyway.
Head to Head
The sides have met five times since 2000, England winning three of them including one in Euro 2000, and Germany winning twice (both at Wembley).
The Betting Verdict
Another game where the bookies cannot split the sides. The million dollar question here is the fitness of Schweinsteiger and Ozil. With these two fit, you’d have to fancy the Germans at the prices, and I was all set to back Teutonic efficiency against Anglo-Saxon hit and hopery.
But without these two, or even if they play but aren’t fit, that wipes out the heart of the German side in which lies their greatest strength. This has to have a massive impact on their chances in this game. But are England good enough to exploit it?
I think England can win, pre-tournament results showed them to be a squeak better than Germany, and they have a good record in second round games (it’s the quarter finals where they usually blow it). But with three distinctly average performances in this tournament so far and key players struggling for form there is no way I’m trusting them at odds on to qualify.
This game has all the hallmarks of a coin toss about it. When all else fails sometimes you just have to go with the biggest price, which would be the draw at 3.2. Two closely matched teams, neither free scoring, in a nervous knockout match - so its not difficult to construct a case for this game going all the way to extra time and possibly beyond.
You can back the draw at 3.2 or the match to go to penalties at 5.5 which is the usual price for this bet but surely a greater than usual chance of it occurring. I will probably be leaving it alone though, one to just watch out of the cracks in your fingers and try to enjoy.
The Pick :
England 0-0 Germany
