WORLD CUP BETTING PICK - NEW ZEALAND V PARAGUAY

World Cup

2010-06-24 - New Zealand vs Paraguay

A Sports Betting Pick by AngryStyro

New Zealand v Paraguay
Football : FIFA World Cup 2010 : Group F
Venue : Peter Mokaba Stadium, Polokwane
Friday, 24th June 2010 - Kickoff 4pm local, 2am NZ

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The final match in group F for these two sides will see them both pushing for 3 points to secure their passage to the next round... or top spot in the group in Paraguay's case, meaning they will avoid the dangerous Dutch team in the round of 16.

Paraguay currently lead the group on 4 points after a 1-1 draw with Italy, and a 2-0 victory over Slovakia. New Zealand are coming off a 1-1 draw with Slovakia, and a 1-1 draw with Italy.

New Zealand

New Zealand pulled off one of the shocks of the tournament on Sunday, holding Italy to a 1-1 draw in Nelspruit. Whilst the football the Kiwis play is hardly setting the tournament alight, they have been proved very organised defensively and not easy to break down.

Playing three up front has also given them target men to aim long balls to up the field, which has proved a useful way of retaining possession that would otherwise be given away in the midfield.

Where New Zealand are lacking is pace and technical skill in the midfield, as Italy demonstrated on Sunday. Italy managed to dominate possession in New Zealand's half for much of their 1-1 draw, but created very few genuine goal scoring opportunities, aside from a few long range attempts on goal.

If New Zealand are to get anything out of this game, they will have to do a better job of matching their opponents in the middle of the park, as Paraguay will not be as inept as Italy were in the final third.

It has been announced that captain, Ryan Nelsen, has come down with a stomach virus. There is no way coach Ricki Herbert would not play him, but without their star player at 100%, it is only going to be a tougher challenge for NZ

Likely New Zealand starting lineup :
Paston, Reid, Nelsen (c), Smith, Bertos, Elliot, Vicelich, Lochhead, Smeltz, Fallon, Killen

Paraguay

Paraguay are coming into this game on the back of two impressive performances, and will likely start with the same lineup that beat Slovakia 2-0 on Sunday.

Not only do this team look assured when going forward in possesion, but are also well structured and organised in defence. This is a rare combination among the South American sides.

While they played quite conservatively against Italy, Paraguay showed against Slovakia what they are capable of, and looked a threat right from the outset.

Many people have commented on how many goals this Paraguay team score from set pieces, but both goals against the Slovaks came from open play after periods of sustained pressure.

They also looked dangerous on the counter-attack against Slovakia, and given the lack of pace in the New Zealand team, this could cause serious problems for them.

Likely Paraguay starting lineup :
Villar (c), Morel, Alcaraz, Da Silva, Vera, Riveros, Caceras, Bonet, Valdez, Barrios, Santa Cruz.

The Betting Verdict

Paraguay looked a class above Slovakia in their last game, which bodes ominously for this NZ side who struggled to match the Slovakians in their first fixture.

Given both teams play a 3-4-3 formation, and both will be looking for all three points on offer, I can see an open game unfolding here.

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Take Paraguay to win at around 1.46 (main bet)

For a larger profit you could try:
Over 2.5 Goals at 2.19