World Cup
2010-06-24 - Paraguay vs New Zealand
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football : FIFA World Cup 2010 : Group F
Thursday, 24th June 2010 - Kickoff 15:00 BST
FIFA World Cup 2010 - Group F Standings
Group F W D L F A GD Pts
Paraguay 1-1-0 3:1 +2 4
Italy 0-2-0 2:2 0 2
New Zealand 0-2-0 2:2 0 2
Slovakia 0-1-1 1:3 -2 1
Paraguay
Paraguay come into this fixture sitting on top of Group F having managed to grab the only win of the group so far - beating Slovakia 2-0 in their last fixture.
It's a perfect situation for Paraguay to be in, and the South American qualifiers will progress to the knockout stages with a draw or a win, although it's clear that a win would be prefered as it would clinch top spot in Group F - and avoid a round of 16 fixture with the impressive Dutch side.
One statistic that stuck me in looking at Paraguay's qualification was the rock solid defence, conceding just 16 goals in 18 games - and it's a telling fact that 12 of Paraguay's last 13 wins have come when they have kept a clean sheet.
New Zealand
New Zealand were not given much hope of even getting a point at the tournament, and certainly not qualifying from this group, and yet with a game to go do the main prize is still there for the Kiwi's to play for.
New Zealand have produced a very functional style of play so far, defending with huge determination and hitting on the counter and the "All Whites" have picked up two points in their first two games.
Who is to say they can't do it again? - Well I am.
Everything has gone right for New Zealand so far, who have scored their two goals from just three shots on target in this World Cup. Meanwhile a combination of woodwork, sweat, and a good dose of good fortune has kept the damage down at the other end.
A 3rd "shock" from the Oceania underdogs is obviously not impossible, as New Zealand can trouble any side with their attacking set-up, and if the Kiwis could score and go in front then Paraguay might react poorly.
The Betting Verdict
New Zealand have done extremely well so far - certainly exceeded expectations - but the style of play that has worked so well against European opponents (including a 1-0 friendly win over Serbia) does not work so well against Central American / South American sides.
The extra skill levels and technique of the CONCACAF / COMNEBOL sides gives the players from this region the ability to simply beat their markers - and that will destroy most defensive patterns.
Additionally, the appointment of Japanese referee Yuichi NISHIMURA to this match could be a negative impact on New Zealand who do have a physical approach to their football.
But although the New Zealand run has been THE feel good fairy-tale of the World Cup so far - but I don't think that this match has a happy ending. Paraguay have been well warned.
New Zealand played both Mexico and Chile in warm-up games, and lost both matches 0-2. I feel that a similar result is likely here.
The Pick :
Paraguay 2-0 New Zealand (or 1-0)
