World Cup
2010-06-23 - England vs Slovenia
A Sports Betting Pick by Caged
Football : FIFA World Cup 2010 : Group Stage C
Venue : Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth
Wednesday 23rd June 2010 - Kickoff 16.00 Local time
England (FIFA Rank 8)
Wow. Where to start. It’s a good job France are at this World Cup otherwise England would be the laughing stock. Lets not go into their constipated, wretched, fearful performance on Friday. It’s all been said already.
The question that we are interested in is where do England go from here? The players are clearly uncomfortable with the system they are being asked to play and Capello appears equally unwilling to change it. It’s astonishing that 4-4-2 is now almost alien to English players.
For the thirty minutes England played 4-5-1/4-3-3 in the Japan warm up friendly, England looked excellent. But Capello obviously saw something he didn’t like, because with 15 minutes to go he reverted to 4-4-2 and hasn’t touched 4-5-1/4-3-3 since.
The ‘clear the air’ meetings at the England training camp appear to have done anything but, as the England players were reportedly not allowed to speak! Things got even more farcical on Sunday as John Terry claimed to be seeking an audience with Capello on behalf of the players, only for the players to distance themselves from him.
England are heading into this win-or-bust game in disarray. Unless things get a lot better very quickly you can see a swift return home for the three lions and a raft of international retirements.
England do have form, in previous tournaments, for drawing the first two games and winning the last to progress. There are any number of parallels between this campaign and Italia 1990. However, Slovenia are no pushovers, the pressure on misfiring England is going to be enormous
Slovenia (FIFA Rank 25)
Slovenia have done well for themselves and top the group with four points from their two games. They need just a point from the England game to qualify for the knockout stages. Plenty of pundits are suggesting that they have been the best team in the group so far.
I’m not so sure.
I think the win over Algeria had a lot to do with Algeria blowing it, and the USA draw saw them throw a two goal lead away which suggests a mental frailty and cant be good for confidence. The bookies aren’t convinced either, despite being easily in the best position in the group they are third of four in the betting for qualification from the group behind England and the USA (albeit still odds-on shots).
The tidy Slovenian wingers and the aerial threat of Novakovic will be dangerous as surely the Slovenians will play a defensive, counter attacking game. Despite the USA result, Slovenia are usually compact, organised and solid in defence which doesn’t bode well for an England attack that doesn’t look like scoring anytime soon.
Head to Head
The sides played a friendly at Wembley in September. An unconvincing England performance saw the Three Lions win 2-1, the goals coming from a very dodgy penalty award converted by Frank Lampard and a deflected Jermaine Defoe effort. The Slovenians got a late and deserved consolation through Ljubijankic .
The Slovenians were very unhappy with Wayne Rooney’s part in the penalty, a challenge which saw Bostjan Cesar out injured for two months. They haven’t forgotten, or forgiven.
The Betting Verdict
It is a mark of how bad England were in the last game that people are actually questioning whether they can beat Slovenia. And in that context, this is a really tough one to pick a decent bet out of.
Even with the background unrest and pathetic last performance I think England will win, probably a scrappy 1-0, I can even see a penalty miss in there to add to the tension.
England never make things easy for themselves, and I think this is yet another case of that, and they do have form of escaping from final group games by the skin of their teeth. However, having already let punters down at odds of 1.5 (USA) and 1.25 (Algeria), I certainly don’t have the stomach for lumping on a shambolic England at 1.5 again.
Non-Anglophiles, who should already be sitting pretty having opposed England in the first two games, should need no second invitation to pile into England’s opponents with a handicap advantage or the draw which would see Slovenia qualify here.
However, for England fans who don’t want to oppose their side, what do we do. The obvious answer is, don’t bet - the game will be tense enough. If you have to back England, instead of taking England to win the match at 1.5, consider backing them at the same price to qualify from the group. It’s the same bet (if England win, they qualify), but it’s also a winner in some other extremely unlikely scenarios. But this is a risky play at short odds - don’t put the rent on it.
Novelty bets :
Underperforming and under pressure Wayne Rooney cuts a very frustrated figure at the moment. With the Slovenians out for revenge for purported atrocities committed by the England forward in the September friendly it is difficult to see his infamous temper holding for the 90 minutes, particularly if England are not getting the result they need.
German disciplinarian Wolfgang Stark will be the referee, making Rooney “to be shown a yellow card” worth a look at 5.5 at betsson or 2.5 to be shown any card elsewhere. Bostjan Cesar was the ‘wronged’ player, if he is out for revenge as has been reported he might be worth a look also at 2.5 to be shown a card (if selected).
Asian handicap :
Slovenia +1.25 goals @ 1.8 could be worth a look although there may be better options nearer kick-off as the English patriotic money often hammers the England win prices.
The Pick :
England 1-0 Slovenia, maybe 2-1
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take England to qualify @ 1.50Consider Rooney "to be shown a card" @ 2.50 or Rooney “to be shown a yellow card” @ 5.5 (betsson)
