WORLD CUP BETTING PICK - ENGLAND V SLOVENIA

World Cup

2010-06-23 - England vs Slovenia

A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps

England V Slovenia
Football : FIFA World Cup 2010 : Group C
Wednesday 23rd June 2010 - Kickoff

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England

Last 5 England International Results :W3-D2-L0 F9-A4

Capello’s side are under real pressure in this winner takes all game in Group C. If England defeats Slovenia then they qualify if they do not then they are very likely to be going home, it’s as simple as that and with potential unrest between the squad and the manager it has all gone wrong for England at the wrong time.

Yet, the reality is if England win and better the USA victory (assuming the Americans win) then the Three Lions will have topped the group and are left with a nice run of provisional games up until the semi finals. I appreciate this is the last thing on their minds but surely the team and Capello has looked at the potential fixtures and this may bring out the best in this underachieving side.

Before drawing their opening Group C games (1-1 USA & 0-0 Algeria) England had in fact won the last 3 games by a margin of 8 goals to 3 so the side was in winning form coming into the tournament. Now as we know friendlies don’t really count as it’s what you do when the pressure is on that really counts but England are not all of a sudden a bad side and man for man they are far superior to Slovenia but the main problem is getting this side to work as a team instead of 11 individuals.

Now since John Terry’s interview the rumours have it that some of the side are unhappy with Terry and some are with Terry who basically said that some of the side want Gerrard just behind Rooney with Joe Cole starting as well. Now the problem is that Terry, rather than keeping it internal and disclosing this to his boss, he decided to tell the media without consent of some team mates.

We can’t tell how this will affect the team as many today have said there is no problem and everyone just wants England to win but I’m not sure how genuine this all is, even so maybe something like this will inspire the side and they will get the win that they crave so much.

Ironically, we may see all the changes that Terry spoke of come Wednesday afternoon with Heskey being dropped for J Cole who will take Gerrard’s position on the left with the Liverpool captain playing behind Rooney in a 4-5-1 which for club at least brings the best out of Gerrard and Rooney. The only other change is Upson in for the suspended Carragher in a side that should cause Slovenia plenty of problems:

Predicted England Lineup :
James, A Cole, Terry, Upson, Johnson, J Cole, Lampard, Gerrard, Barry, Lennon, Rooney

Slovenia

Last 5 Slovenia International Results :W4-D1–L0 F11-A3

Slovenia were the dark horses in this group and Matjas Kek’s side were just minutes away from qualifying for the second round as they led USA 2-1 but conceded a late goal to draw 2-2. Had they held on then this game would be meaningless for them but instead they must NOT lose to England and a place in the next round.

I say had they held on, but in reality Slovenia were very lucky not to have lost the game as the U.S had a winning goal incorrectly ruled out which would have meant Slovenia were the ones going into this game needing to win. Yet, lady luck appears to be shining on this up and coming team and it is certainly not beyond them to hold England on Wednesday afternoon.

Slovenia remember were big underdogs to get out of their playoff against Russia to even qualify for these championships but they defied the odds to send the Russians packing, so why not the same against England?. I also recall this team going on a 4 game winning streak at the end of without conceding to finish second to set up that qualifying game against Russia and in that run they went to Slovakia and won 2-0 which was very impressive.

This team is very well organised and in qualifying they only let in 5 first half goals over their 10 games and they certainly must stay focused when up against a wounded hungry England side. My fear is that Slovenia will play for the draw despite what their players are saying and this only plays into England’s hands especially if they dominate possession early and get a strangle hold on the game.

Before I discuss team news one key stat is since 2002 Slovenia when losing at half time, 23 occasions have gone on to lose 22 of those games which is a horrendous stat! If England get in front I think Slovenia will struggle to come back especially as they leave spaces at the back and in the middle of the park.

Team news is that Slovenia is unchanged from the 2-2 draw with USA and will come out in their 4-42 setup but I expect this to be a more rigid 4-5-1 when England has the ball as they look to frustrate Capello’s men.

The key players will certainly be Cesar and Suler the two centre halves whilst up front Novakovic who was their top scorer in qualifying will be the main threat as he looks to trouble the makeshift pairing of Terry and Upson.

Predicted Slovenia Lineup :
Handanovic, Brecko, Suler, Cesar, Jokic, Koren, Kirm, Radosavljevic, Ljubikankic, Birsa, Novakovic.

The Betting Verdict

Despite all that’s going on in the England camp, I really like them in this matchup against a Slovenia side that might be low on confidence after letting a 2 goal lead slip to the US.

If England get ahead early I think they will win by 2 clear goals. England is the pick. Good Luck.

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Take England at 1.50 which is a very fair price