World Cup
2010-06-23 - Australia vs Serbia
A Sports Betting Pick by Costanzo
Football : FIFA World Cup 2010 : Group D
Venue : Mbombela Stadium, Nelspruit
Wednesday, 23rd June 2010, Kickoff 20:30 Local/19:30 BST
THe Group Situation
The final round of matches in the group phase is upon us and both teams will be fighting tooth and nail in order to progress.
Serbia can get through via two methods. If they win this match they will go through, but they can also get through with a draw. If Serbia only comes away with a draw they require Ghana to defeat Germany (which is asking a bit much). So basically this is a must win for Serbia.
From the point of view of the Aussies they need to win first and then need one of two things to occur.
If Australia wins and Ghana beat Germany, the Socceroos will progress with 4 points leaving Germany and Serbia (this may also be a stretch).
The other alternative is winning 2-0 over Serbia and having Germany trounce Ghana 3-0. This is the more likely option as Germany are fighting for a position in the round of 16 and will not be satisfied with anything other than a win.
There are countless permutations but there is no doubt both teams are going out for a win here. The other fixture is played at the same time so there will be no playing to suit another result ... it is do or die for both nations.
Australia
The Australians looked very good in the match against Ghana. The effort was even better when you consider they were without Harry Kewell for about 65 or so minutes after he was sent off following a debateable handball on the goal line. They battled at times against an eager Ghanaian side but defended well enough to restrict their opponents to long range efforts during the second half.
The Socceroos even had a few chances of their own after Scott Chipperfield and Josh Kennedy were introduced as second half substitutes and some may say the Aussies looked the better side as the end drew nearer. Tim Cahill is back his following his 1 game ban and will need to be at his best after the team’s only other star was suspended. Kewell looked good against Ghana and Cahill needs to step up immediately and take the helm.
The defence was much better from an Australian point of view on Saturday against Ghana. It was essentially the same line-up but David Carney replaced veteran Scott Chipperfield on the left hand side of defence. I can only assume that will stay the same with Chipperfield being used as an impact player off the bench in the second half. He did come on and play on the left flank and loomed as a danger player for the Ghanaian right sided defenders.
In the centre Craig Moore will miss after picking up his second yellow late in the clash with Ghana. His replacement is likely to be Michael Beauchamp who is the tallest defender in the Aussie squad and could be the logical match-up for beanpole striker Nikola Zigic. Luke Wilkshire will line up on the right hand side of defence knowing how important his delivery of balls into the boxes will be. He is a key man for the Aussies.
The midfield will see Cahill come back in and play just behind Josh Kennedy who I expect to reclaim his spot following Kewell’s suspension. The line-up and formation will depend on how aggressive Pim Verbeek wants to be from the outset. Rather than having two holding midfielders in Jason Cullina and Carl Valeri, Verbeek may opt to go with only one and leave Brett Holman in as a more attacking threat.
The Socceroos need goals and a win but the coach is quite conservative and not too different from French coach Domenech. Mark Bresciano and Brett Emerton appear likely to retain their spots on the wings, and their supposed class will need to be the difference here as they may have an edge out wide if given the right support from team-mates.
Up front for the Socceroos Josh Kennedy has to come back in. He made a small impact off the bench but will need to find 90 minutes of impact in this match as he will face bigger and physically stronger defenders in the likes of Nemanja Vidic and Neven Subotic. Kennedy is the stereotypical ‘big’ guy but lacks the touch of similar players like Peter Crouch and even Nikola Zigic. His touch needs to be at 100 percent for this one in order to bring the likes of Cahill, Emerton, Bresciano and Wilkshire into the game.
The other option at striker for Verbeek is Nikita Rukavytsya. Rukavytsya is another tall striker (not as tall as Kennedy) but has immense pace, and looked lively for the 10 or so minutes he was on the pitch for against Ghana. He will be called upon as a sub in the second half if the Aussies are struggling to break through, because by them even Verbeek will understand the need to go all out.
Serbia
The Serbian defence has a few shaky moments against Germany on Friday but still managed to keep their opponents scoreless.
Serbian goalkeeper Vladimir Stojkovic can hold his head high following a save of a Lukas Podolski penalty and other good saves throughout the match. He can expect to be a bit less busy in this match but will need to be on guard all the same.
Aleksandar Lukovic could be welcomed back following his sending off against Ghana in the opener. If he does come in, expect Subbotic to make way for him. Branislav Ivanovic played at right back and after a solid year at Chelsea will be confident of having enough impact both defensively and offensively. Man United central defender Vidic could be expected to come up against Kennedy, and that will be a key match- up in deciding which nation gets the result.
The midfield is a classy section for Serbia. The captain is Dejan
Stankovic, whom for years I have regarded as one of the world’s best. He runs the show for Inter Milan and his striking from distance is world class. He poses a real threat from dead ball situations and doesn’t shirk his defensive duties. I couldn’t rate him high enough and he is clearly the class player on the pitch for mine. Milan Jovanovic and Milos Krasic will feature on the wings and Jovanovic will hope he can replicate his form against Germany where he scored the important goal.
Nikola Zigic may line up as the sole striker but Krasic and Jovanovic will be doing their utmost to get forward and support the big man. Zigic will come up against Beauchamp and he will be looking to assert his authority early in the piece. There were a lot of expectations for Zigic before this tournament and I think this could be his breakout match before going on a bit of a run leading the Serbian team to greater heights.
The Betting Verdict
I think Serbia will do enough to win here. They don’t need to be concerned about goal difference, just the win. If they get a goal up you could expect to see them shut things down and make it extremely tough for the Aussies.
By rights Serbia should be the slightly more conservative of the two as a draw could be enough, where the Socceroos need to go for broke. I think this may be the end of the line for the Aussies.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Serbia to win as a main bet at 1.92 or better.For a couple of side bets :
- take the under 2.5 goals at 1.64 or better,
- and/or Nikola Zigic to score first and anytime at the best price available.
