ENGLISH PREMIER BETTING PICK - LIVERPOOL V CHELSEA

English Premier

2010-05-02 - Liverpool vs Chelsea

A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps

Liverpool v Chelsea
Football : England : Premier League
Sunday 2nd May 2010, Kickoff 1:30pm

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Liverpool

Last 5 Liverpool League Home Games : W4-D1-L0 F12-A2

Rafa Benitez’s side have had a poor league campaign this season, originally tipped as marginal 3rd favourites to win the league, the reds have disappointed all year and with 2 games to go they find them selves languishing in 7th and a massive 18 points behind current leaders Chelsea.

The league challenge was lost months ago but the quest for fourth place has continued all season and even now at this late stage of the year, Liverpool’s destiny is not in their own hands. Man City, Villa and Spurs are all above them as this 4 team fight for fourth is coming to an exciting end with Liverpool currently in 7th and 2 points behind Spurs in fourth.

However, Tottenham have a game in hand over Liverpool and it is incredibly unlikely that Liverpool will finish in the top 4, in fact the bookies have them as the rank outsiders of the 4 contenders.

On Sunday they host current league leaders Chelsea in their final home game of the season so they will certainly want to end the year with a win in front of the KOP at Anfield. On the other hand, it’s the worst kept secret that if Chelsea does not win this game at Anfield it is likely that United will win at Sunderland and then go onto taking the title which if it happens will break Liverpool’s long standing record of league titles.

Now many fans are split about this game, some want Liverpool to go out and win but some hate United that much that they would rather lay down for Chelsea and let the West Londoners take the points.

Whatever the fans want is irrelevant, the manager and the most senior players have all come out and stated that they will play to win and it’s up to Chelsea to get the job done themselves. With that being said, statistically it is likely that Liverpool will go on and take something from this encounter. Despite languishing in 7th, the Reds do have the 4th best home record with the other top 4 members above them. From 18 home games, the Reds have 13 wins and just 2 losses with a goal difference of plus 30!

The only sides to have won at Anfield are Villa (3-1) and Arsenal (2-1), Villa won in August whilst Arsenal won in December! In 2010 no team has come to Anfield and won and that includes matches against Tottenham and Everton domestically whilst in European sides such as Lille, Benfica and Athletico Madrid have also failed.

Current home form is also impressive 4 wins from the last 5 which was very similar to Tottenham’s when Chelsea played them 2 weeks ago and we saw what Spurs did that day to the Blues! In recent weeks Liverpool has out muscled all of their opponents beating West Ham (3-0), Sunderland (3-0), Portsmouth (4-1) and Blackburn (2-1) whilst Fulham came away with a 0-0 draw. Regardless of Liverpool’s motivation, this side at home is very hard to beat and given that only 2 teams have done it this term it’s hard to see the Reds losing.

Team news is that following the Europa League extra-time game midweek, we may see Liverpool shake things up with a few changes. Aquilani could be one to be handed a rest with Lucas likely to start ahead of the Italian, Kyrgiakos should slot into the middle with Mascherano reverting to his familiar role in the midfield having taken up the right-back role against Atlectico.

Benayoun looked very tired at the end of the Madrid game and could be swapped for Maxi Rodriguez who makes a return to the eleven having been ineligible on Thursday. Up front there is no Torres but Ngog is in contention and could start this one having been fit enough to make the bench in midweek.

Predicted Liverpool Lineup :
Reina, Johnson, Kyrgiakos, Carragher, Agger; Mascherano, Lucas, Gerrard, Rodriguez, Babel; Kuyt.

Chelsea

Last 5 Chelsea League Away Games : W3-D1-L1 F11-A4

After losing 2-1 away to Spurs two weeks ago many thought Chelsea would crumble against a tricky Stoke side next time out but instead the Blues rallied to beat Stoke 7-0 and maintain there 1 point leader at the top of the table. Ancelotti’s men are two wins away from the title and with Wigan to come at home on the final day THIS is the game that will make or break the season for the Blues, Liverpool away.

In their last away game Chelsea were thoroughly outclassed by Tottenham as they looked nervous and very cagey, now they visit an even harder ground to win at in the shape of Anfield. It is hard to believe that Chelsea currently posses the 3rd best away record in the Premiership given that they have only won half their away games with a record of 18 played, 9 wins, 4 draws and a concerning 5 defeats.

On the positive side, the goal difference is plus 15 which suggests that when Chelsea win on the road they win well and obviously lose by short margins. On Sunday only a win will do and the 50-50 split of wins to non wins will finally be determined, either they finish on 10 wins from 19 played or its 10 failures on the road this season.

The last 5 for Chelsea remains as it did pre Spurs, 5 played 3 wins with a draw and a defeat, it’s because of this tight record the Blues have given up crucial points and ultimately the lead in the Premiership race on several occasions. Ancelotti’s men appear to have had the title in their hands but then they play away from home and drop points, if they do that on Sunday it’s goodbye to the title.

In the last 5 away games Chelsea has beat Wolves (2-0), Portsmouth (5-0) and Manchester United (2-1), but they did draw 1-1 at Ewood Park whilst last time out Chelsea were beaten by Spurs (2-1). So Chelsea can win at Old Trafford but not at Ewood? Go figure! Liverpool is right up there with tough away games and statistically Chelsea can NOT be back right now to go and win there. The title could be out their hands come Sunday evening.

Team news is that Bosingwa, Carvalho and Essien are out whilst Mikel is a big doubt following an injury picked up against Tottenham. Captain Terry returns following his one game ban to skipper the side with Ferreria most likely dropping to the bench and Ivanovic starting at right back as Terry partners Alex. Ashley Cole should start again at left back following his ankle break with the midfield being hotly contested by many players looking for starts.

Lampard and Malouda will definitely start but the other 3 places are between Kalou, Anelka, Deco, Mikel, Zhirkov, Ballack and Belletti! I think Carlo will go for it and play an attacking side with Cole and Anelka starting out wide to support Drogba up front in what really is a make or break game for Chelsea.

Predicted Chelsea Lineup :
Cech, Ivanovic, Alex, Terry, A Cole; Mikel, Ballack, Lampard, Malouda, Drogba; J Cole.

The Betting Verdict

Regardless of motivation Chelsea can not be backed given how good Liverpool are at home and at best I rate the Blues around 33% to win which means no value at all.

Instead I will be backing Liverpool not to lose at a generous price.

The Statistics :

The Pick :