AFL Aussie Rules
2010-05-02 - West Coast Eagles vs Fremantle Dockers
A Sports Betting Pick by Costanzo
Aussie Rules : Football : AFL PRemiership
Venue : Subiaco Oval, Perth
Sunday, 2nd May 2010 - Start 6:42pm, AEST
The rivalry in this match in huge. The only two Perth based sides go head to head in the derby. This has traditionally been an exciting encounter with form not being too much of a factor, because both sides left a notch or two for this clash.
This should be no exception in terms of excitement but I feel form may dictate the overall result.
West Coast Eagles (1-4) Form : LLLWL
The Eagles went to Sydney last weekend and were disappointing as expected. They had no answer for the Swans’ run from half back and lacked the same skill level of their opponents and the Eagles were defeated by 52 points, and scored a measly 4.4 in the first half. They will be hungry to bounce back this week on home soil.
West Coast’s forward has some promising faces with the likes of Ashley Hansen and Mark LeCras. LeCras is arguably their best player and has been for the last 2-3 years, but the decision by coach Worsfold to play him out of the goal square is bewildering given his stature. He would be much better suited playing as a small forward or even in the midfield, because he clearly has the skills. Having said that he is scoring goals at full forward and alongside a very inconsistent Hansen they can sometimes pose as a threatening attacking force.
The hamstring injury to star midfielder Daniel Kerr will see him out for a period of months and this makes things harder for an Eagles midfield that I would rank about 13th out of 16 in the league. Players like Matt Priddis and Chris Masten will really need to step up and be counted this week if they are to threaten the Dockers.
In defence the Eagles have Darren Glass and Will Schofield who are the key position backs. They too will have to be switched on for this match as one of them will have to line-up against an in form Freo captain Matt Pavlich.
The best thing about the West Coast Eagles is the ruck division. I have mentioned Nic Naitanui on many occasions and he alongside Dean Cox is clearly the best ruck duo in the league. Their battle against the best individual ruckman, Aaron Sandilands, will go a long way to deciding who gets first use of the ball out of the centre. Cox and Naitanui will both need solid efforts in curbing Sandilands and helping the Eagles on the scoreboard.
Fremantle Dockers (4-1) Form : WWWLW
The Dockers were a little disappointing last week against the beleaguered Richmond Tigers. It took them until the 2nd quarter before they began playing and only won by 39 points. Perhaps the most disappointing fact was that they kicked 15.22, with many of the 22 behinds being very kickable goals from directly in front about 30-40 metres out. They will need this to improve this week, because they won’t face a team as bad as Richmond again for a while.
The Freo forward line looks threatening with the likes of Pavlich alongside Chris Mayne, and the persistent Hayden Ballantyne. Between these three guys and with the help of their team-mates, it really is hard to see the Eagles stopping the Dockers from posting a score that will be very hard to beat.
The Dockers midfield is one of the stories of the AFL this year. Basically a list of no-bodies last year, and still not much different this year, they have showed that they are becoming some-bodies. Michael Barlow, David Mundy, Paul Duffield and Stephen Hill have come from no-where to be extremely competitive and to a greater extent they are becoming formidable. They certainly look to have the edge against their counterparts and assuming the delivery inside 50 is clean and effective Freo could win fairly well.
The Docker defence is becoming surer every week, with the likes of Chris Tarrant, Luke McPharlin and young Jay Van Berlo beginning to show glimpses of a defence that can lead their side for a march into the September finals action.
Aaron Sandilands is the best ruckman in the league by a fair margin, and his sheer height added to his mobility for a big guy makes him hard to compete against. He loves taking a contested mark, and getting forward to kick a goal. Expect more of this on the weekend.
The Betting Tip
Fremantle are a good bet here as I really cannot see them losing. They may win big so if some people want to look at the line good on ya for having more balls than me. But a win for Freo is my AFL bet of the week.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take the Fremantle Dockers to win at 1.40 or better.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
The line is set at 15.5 points, so for the more gutsy bet take Fremantle -15.5 pts at 1.90
