Europa League
2010-04-01 - Benfica vs Liverpool
A Sports Betting Pick by Shady
Football: Europe, UEFA Europa League 2009/2010
Thursday, 1st April 2010 - Kickoff 8:05pm GMT (9:05pm local)
Liverpool are currently favourites to win the Europa League while Benfica are only 4th best to win the cup.
Liverpool are best priced at 5.00 (4/1) at Canbet to win while Benfica is approximately 7.25 at Centrebet.
Match Analysis :
Benfica have impressive me this season as they have played well in Europe. As Benfica welcomes Liverpool to the Estadio Da Luz, the Portuguese side have won their last three meetings against Liverpool. Liverpool might have the better head to head record overall but Liverpool have lost their last 3 games against Benfica without scoring a single goal. In addition, Benfica is also eyeing a rare Merseyside double as they have hammered Everton in the Group Stages this season with a 5-0 and a 2-0 score line.
Liverpool are simply weak on the road not only in the League but also in Europe. In the four away ties Liverpool played this season, they have lost 3 and won 1. In the Champions League, they lost to Fiorentina and Lyon while Liverpool struggle to win against lowly Debrecen. In the Europe League, Liverpool created nothing much away against Lille.
Rafa Benitez have stood up and asked his players to start perform consistently if there want to pick up any silverware this season. Steven Gerrard will be the man Benitez banking on to show his leadership and creativy while Fernando Torres will be the man Benitez relys on to get him the priceless away goals.
Jorge Jesus believes that Liverpool are the strongest team in the Europa League and he will do his best to take full advantage of home ground. Confidence would have to be high for the Portuguese side as they are undefeated in 25 games and have won their last 8 out of 9 games.
In addition, Jorge Jesus have a full squad to select from with no real injury concern. However, Aquilani is ruled out for the game alongside Skrtel, Martin Kelly and Aurelio while Maxi Rodriguez ineligible for the game as he played for Alt Madrid earlier this season. Lucas is expected to regain his position in midfield after being rested at the weekend.
The Betting Verdict :
Benfica have been strong at home this season, while Liverpool have been poor on the road. No doubt Liverpool are securing a couple of good wins in the League recently and at home to Lille, but do not forget, all those games were played at Anfield.
Liverpool holds the worst away record on the road in the Premier League under the asian handicap statistic. With only a 12.5% win on the road under the handicap line, even the likes of Portsmouth and Hull City have a better record than that.
Benfica are currently the leading goal scorers in the Europa League with 21 goals and with that record, you do not expect Jorge Jesus side to sit back and defend.
I expect an attacking game by Benfica and with Liverpool so prone to conceding cheap goals on the goal, Benfica are almost certain to score. The question is can Liverpool score? The best I think would be a score draw for Liverpool, but im going for a home win!
The Pick :
Benfica 3-1 Liverpool
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Benfica at a level ball (AH +0).
