CHAMPIONS LEAGUE BETTING PICK - ARSENAL V BARCELONA

Champions League

2010-03-31 - Arsenal vs Barcelona

A Sports Betting Pick by Auls

Arsenal v Barcelona
Football: European Champions League
Wednesday 31st March 2010 - Kickoff 7:45pm

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Arsenal

Arsenal saw their title challenge in the Premier League dented at the weekend with a extraordinary goal in the dying minutes of their game with Birmingham costing them 2 points. It has been a number of years now since their last trophy although they are only 2 rounds from reaching the Champions League final- unfortunately the reigning European Champions stand in their path here.

The Gunners are 3rd in the Premier League table and are 4 points behind Manchester United after the results at the weekend. They have a 13-1-2 record at the Emirates this season in the League, scoring 43 goals in those games and conceding 15. Only the top 2 sides have won more games at home than Arsenal so far this season. Arsenal have won all 5 home games in the Champions League this season and have scored at least 2 goals in each of those games.

After going through a really sticky patch of losing 4 games in 6 matches in all competitions about 6 weeks ago, Arsenal have rediscovered their form and have subsequently won 6 of 7 games, the other ending in a draw as I mentioned at Birmingham. The Gunners have won 5 matches in a row at the Emirates in all competitions since being beaten by Manchester United here. They have only conceded 1 goal in those games and have scored at least 2 goals in the last 4 games.

Thomas Vermaelan is back in the squad after completing a suspension he had domestically. Andrey Arshavin, Abou Diaby and William Gallas have all been training this week and could feature. The big news coming out of Arsenal is the fact that they may be missing Cesc Fabregas for this game- keep an eye on the team news as this is going to be a late decision, perhaps as late as the warm up to the game.

Barcelona

Barcelona are looking to be the first side to retain the Champions League in this format although the big story coming into this game is the return of Thierry Henry to the club where he made his transformation from a winger to world class striker.

The Catalan club are currently 2nd in La Liga on goal difference to Real Madrid but face their big rivals soon. Barcelona remain one of the toughest teams to beat with only 1 loss in the League this season. They are 10-4-1 away from home, scoring 32 goals and conceding 10 in those games. Barcelona are a little indifferent in away games in the Champions League and they are 1-3-0 in those games so far.

Form could not be much better for the Catalan giants coming into the game with 7 wins from their last 8 games in all competitions. They have recovered from their only away defeat of the season in their last 3 away games in all competitions, and have won 2 in a row away from the Nou Camp. Arsenal may take comfort from the fact that Barcelona have not won any of their last 5 away games in the knockout stages of the Champions League although they have only lost 1 of those games. Interestingly, Barcelona have drawn their last 4 away knockout ties 1-1.

While Arsenal may be missing their talisman midfielder Fabregas, Barcelona are definitely going to have to play without Andres Iniesta. Xavi is also a doubt while Eric Abidal remains a long term injury. Gerard Pique is requiring a fitness test before this game.

Head to Head

These 2 sides met in the Final of the Champions League in 2006 when Barcelona managed to overturn a 1-0 deficit to win the game 2-1 in the last 15 minutes.

They also met in the group stages during the 1999/2000 season when Arsenal were playing their home games at Wembley. Barcelona won the game at Wembley while the 2 sides drew at the Nou Camp.

Prediction

Arsenal will have had their confidence knocked a little bit after their result at the weekend and may have changed their perceptions to viewing this as their best opportunity to win a trophy this season. This will be a tough ask without Fabregas, if he is indeed missing, but they should be boosted by the news that Iniesta and Xavi could both be missing for Barcelona.

Barcelona will feel they can overcome any result at the Nou Camp where the 2nd leg takes place next week, but they will not sit back and defend here as that is not their style. Lionel Messi is a huge influence for this side and will want to showcase his talents on English soil, a complaint that may have been levelled at him by journalists here in previous games.

This is a harder game to call than many may think. Barcelona have not won many of their recent away games in knockout ties in this competition with the last 4 ending in draws. Arsenal have been strong at home all season, but both Chelsea and Manchester United have won here and this is the biggest test they will face outside of those clubs.

I think I am going to pick this game to end in a draw. There might be a little bit of value of picking the 1-1 scoreline, a regular occurrence in Barcelona's recent away games in knockout ties in this competition.

The Statistics :

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Take the Draw

Possible value picking the 1-1 Correct Score @ 7.00 (Eurobet)