English Premier
2010-03-27 - Birmingham vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premier League
Saturday 27th March 2010 - Kickoff 3pm
Birmingham
Last 5 Birmingham City games at home : W2-D3-L0 F7-A5
The Brummies are in that really awkward position in the table, no not necessarily because it’s 9th, but because they can’t go down and they have no real chance of making Europe either. Yet given that this has been a good year for them and that their manager McLeish will want to finish as high as possible I don’t doubt for a second the level of commitment from his side ahead of high flying Arsenal’s visit to St Andrews on Saturday.
St Andrews is a very tricky ground to visit, in the 15 games played there this season only 2 sides have come away with 3 points, rivals Villa (1-0) and Bolton (2-1) of all sides! Both defeats were suffered very early on in the season with the latter coming back in September, since then high flyers such as Chelsea, United, City, Spurs and Everton have all had a go and all left with a point! 15 home games and 6 draws with most of them coming against the bigger clubs, it’s clear that his midlands club are fired up for the big games and the next one gets no bigger when Arsenal are the opponents.
When playing at the Emirates back in October, McLeish’s men went down 3-1 despite a spirited showing but the Birmingham away form is nothing like the home one. Just 2 defeats 7 wins at home compared to 5 wins and 9 defeats away, whether it’s the intimated crowd or higher level of play, Birmingham at St Andrews is a tough place to visit.
A problem for this side is scoring goals, 15 home goals in 15 home games is never going to be good enough for a high top table finish and in fact it flatters them that they are in 9th given their lack of fire power. Yet, their strengths lie in defence with only 10 conceded at home and only Everton from the list above have scored more than once here this season. So that includes Chelsea, United, Spurs and City all of whom could not get the second goal and consequently they dropped points. If Birmingham can keep Arsenal at bay giving up just the one goal it could well result in another 1-1 draw.
Team news is that following the midweek game at Ewood Park no new injury concerns are present. This means that O’Connor and Carsley remain sidelined and that all changes will purely be tactical from McLeish. Generally we see the same eleven week in week out with Birmingham but given that they looked poor midweek we could see a tinker or two, in particular Larsson and Benitez who looked good after coming on midweek but for now I’ll stick with what’s trusted:
Predicted Birmimngham City Lineup :
Hart, Carr, Dann, Johnson, Ridgewell; Gardner, Bowyer, Ferguson, Fahey; McFadden, Jerome.
Arsenal
Last 5 Arsenal games away : W3-D1-L1 F7-A4
Wenger’s men are finishing the season well and continue to pressure the front two as they seek their first title win since 2004. Currently on a 6 game winning streak Wenger knows that they must keep on winning as there are doing and come May they will be Champions. Up next is a tricky away day at Birmingham a side unbeaten in the last 5 at home.
Arsenal are a very strange side this year, they have proved they are up for a physical game by winning at Wolves (4-1), Bolton (2-0), Stoke (3-1) and at Hull (2-1), games that in recent years have been drawn or lost. Yet against the top 2 they were beaten badly in 3 of the 4 games losing 2-1 and 3-1 to leaders United and 3-0 and 2-0 to second placed Chelsea. Normally Arsenal would win at least 1 of the 2 home games and possibly draw 1 of the 2 away games, yet this has not happened and despite being written off on at least 3 times they look the best of the 3 to go on and win it all!
Only drawing 4 games has been crucial I believe for this side, which sounds a daft thing to day but because they are going all out to win at any ground more often than not they are taking 3 points and not 1. Yes it may have cost them the odd defeat but by literally beating everyone other than the top 2 it has meant they are well up there in the table and I believe most sides fear Arsenal more than both United and Chelsea simply because it’s a daunting prospect having to keep up with them for 90 minutes.
Looking at the away form, overall the Gunners have the second best record in the league with a huge 8 wins from 15 games and just 4 defeats. The defeats came at Chelsea, United, Sunderland and City so baring Sunderland all top sides, when looking at their opponents on Saturday, for me Birmingham are very much a Sunderland and like back on 21st November if Birmingham even take a point let alone a win I’ll be shocked.
I say that because Arsenal has a “Brazil” about them, they concede but it doesn’t matter they will simply out score you over 90 minutes. In the last 10 away games Arsenal have a miserly 2 clean sheets yet they have 20 points which is a huge figure given they visited Chelsea, Villa and Liverpool in that run. Will Birmingham score on Saturday? maybe, maybe not, but for me it doesn’t matter, Arsenal has too much fire power going forward for them to keep up and come 5pm it’s another 3 points for the Wengerboys.
Team news is that Djorou, Gallas, Gibbs, Ramsey and Van Persie are all out which there are doubts over Vela and Bendtner. The worst absentee of them all is key defender Vermaelen who is suspended following his red last weekend against West Ham. This means we may Silvestre partner Campbell at the back which for me is a championship centre back paring at best but hopefully Birmingham don’t have much of the ball to make an impact against these two wiltering centre backs. Sagna will slot in back at right back with Eboue into midfield which could see Nasri on the bench. Up top Bendtner is a doubt but should play following a late fitness test which should leave the Gunners looking like:
Predicted Arsenal Lineup :
Almunia, Sagna, Silvestre, Campbell, Clichy; Song, Denilson, Fabregas, Eboue, Arshavin, Bendtner.
THe Betting Verdict :
Despite a few players missing for the Gunners their team is too strong and too quick for Birmingham and that touch of class should see them through.
Away win.
The Pick :
Birmingham 1-3 Arsenal
