English Premier
2010-03-27 - Chelsea vs Aston Villa
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : England : Premier League
Saturday 27th March 2010 - Kickoff 3pm
Chelsea
Last 5 Chelsea games at home : W4-D0-L1 F18-A7
Following the mid week thumping at Fratton Park Chelsea find themselves back in second place and trail leaders and current champions Manchester United by 1 point. With a massive game at Old Trafford next Saturday, the Blues will want to ensure they take the maximum points this week maintaining that they at least have a chance to regain the top spot in that massive top of the table clash on the 3rd of April.
Carlo Ancelotti’s men did not look that great on Wednesday and the score flattered them somewhat. Until David Jame’s howler for the first goal, I don’t recall the England keeper making a decent save. After that they grew in confidence and once they got the second goal they cruised through as the Pompey heads dropped. This week Chelsea face their FA Cup semi-final opponents Aston Villa, a side that has already beat them this season and are unbeaten in 2 of the last 3 visits to Stamford Bridge under Martin O’Neil.
What was important from the midweek win was the level of victory, by winning 5-0 Chelsea are now the highest scorers in the league and have the joint best goal difference of +47 along side Manchester Untied. Now on Saturday goal difference is not a factor, the Blues will just want points in what is a very tricky encounter but at least now they know provisionally that they can’t be affected by the goal difference situation which played a huge role in last season’s title challenge. I remember the Blues playing catch up for a long time and it definitely affected their performances knowing United were “that” many goals ahead of them.
Chelsea bounced back well from the poor 4-2 defeat at home to City with a 4-1 win of their own over rivals West Ham next time out. Before that Ancelotti’s men recorded impressive wins over Arsenal (2-0), Birmingham (3-0) and Sunderland (7-2!!). Apart from the Arsenal game the recent Chelsea matches have been an “overs” fest producing an average of 5 goals per game! Chelsea are very attacking these days at the Bridge and whilst they are scoring lots of goals at times they can be shaky at the back and even Portsmouth had a great chance on Wednesday to score which could of changed the game. Villa are way above Pompey and if Sunderland can score 2 here and even West Ham a goal then certainly Villa will fancy their chances of finding the back of the net.
It was good to see Lampard playing really well on Wednesday as despite his impressive goal tally he has come under some criticism lately. Lampard’s creativity and particular short accuracy was a welcome sign, when Lampard gets into space with the opportunity to shoot many chances are created. The 4th against West Ham was a rebound after Lampard shot and midweek Malouda scored off a Lampard rebound not to mention his shots could go in anyways! In recent weeks we haven’t seen enough of this so Wednesday was a good night for Frank and Chelsea fans will want him to “turn up” on Sunday for sure.
Team news is that Carvalho, Bosingwa, A.Cole, Essien and Ivanovic all out whilst the good news is that Ballack returns as does Belletti. Ballack is likely to slot straight in ahead of Deco whilst Anelka should be recalled back to the starting eleven replacing Sturridge who probably deserves a run in this team. Drogba’s knee injury is minor and he starts on Saturday in what should be a really close fought match, Chelsea to look like:
Predicted Chelsea Lineup :
Cech, Ferreira, Alex, Terry, Zhirkov; Mikel, Ballack, Lampard, Malouda, Anelka; Drogba.
Aston Villa
Last 5 Aston Villa games away : W2-D2-L1 F4-A4
Martin O’Neil’s men are slowly fading down the table as they fight for the final lucrative Champions League spot. With his side now in 7th place on 51 points, they trail Spurs (4th) by 4 points and have been caught by the resurgent Everton in recent weeks. Up next is a tough away day at Chelsea but O’Neil can take heart that he has already beaten the Blues at Villa Park and as mentioned above only has 1 defeat here in the last 3 seasons.
When looking at Villa’s recent form we can see why they are dropping off the pace that Spurs are setting, overall in the last 10 games despite losing no games at all, the Villans only have 3 wins and a staggering 7 draws! Yet what is encouraging is that of the 3 wins 2 have been on the road as they seem to find Villa Park a difficult place to win at on a regular basis.
In fairness to Villa, their last 5 away games have been very tricky, they beat Wigan 2-1 last time out which followed 2 draws at Stoke (0-0) and Spurs (0-0) whilst beating Fulham (2-0) and finally losing at the Emirates (3-0) way back in late December. So when analysing this form we can see that they beat Wigan as expected but draws at Stoke and Tottenham are good points for me and the win at Fulham is great considering how good they are at the Cottage. Villa despite the lack of wins overall recently are certainly a tough to beat team and I think ruling them out is very risky thing to do come Saturday.
Team news is that Villa is without Reo-Coker whilst there are several doubts over some of their big players. Agbonlahor, Heskey, Dunne and Milner will all face late fitness tests prior to the game with O’Neill still hopeful that they will be available to play. Even if all 5 start they surely can not be 100% and I think this is a major problem for Villa especially Milner and Dunne who have been the outstanding players at Villa Park this season. If Agbonlahor misses out we may see Carew partnered by Delfouneso whilst ex-Chelsea Sidwell and Luke Young are on hand in case Dunne and Milner don’t make it.
Predicted Aston Villa Lineup :
Friedel, L Young, Cuellar, Collins, Warnock; Petrov, Downing, Milner, A Young; Delfouneso, Carew.
The Betting Verdict :
Chelsea looked very clinical in front of goal on Wednesday whilst Villa are starting to tire and falter, given the trio of Milner, Agbonlahor and Dunne are all questionable I can’t back Villa to hold the Londoners.
I believe there will be goals like normal at the Bridge and the “overs” seems a value bet.
The Pick :
Chelsea 2-1 Aston Villa
BEST BETTING TIP :
Betting on Chelsea to win at 1.45 (general) looks about spot on.If Milner, Dunne and Agbonlahor are out definitely snap it up.
Or take Over 2.50 Goals at 1.80
