Spanish La Liga
2010-03-20 - Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe
A Sports Betting Pick by Caged
Football : Spain :Primera Division
San Mames, Bilbao
Saturday 20th March 2010 - Kickoff 5pm
Athletic Bilbao (7th) Home : 8-1-3
Basque favourites Athletic Bilbao are having a vintage season. They may be in 7th place and one place ahead of the Saturdays visitors, but they are just three points outside the Champions League spots. With Sevilla stumbling, Athletic are one of a number of teams that could achieve an unlikely position amongst Europe’s elite next season.
Bilbao are traditionally strong at home, and current form bears this out with 5 wins, one draw and one defeat in the last seven. Impressive enough, but when you consider that this run of fixtures includes Real Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia, this form really does look rock solid.
Last time out Bilbao drew 0-0 draw at struggling Sporting Gijon. The stats suggest it was an even encounter. I only saw the second half but from what I saw, Bilbao were much the better side and had more than enough chances to win, including a missed penalty.
Bilbao are missing the number 10 player that they have had for the last decade or so, and so sometimes will struggle to unlock the door against teams that come to San Mames to defend. But they do have the infamous Bilbao traits of physical strength and directness in spades.
Total home form this season is an impressive 8-1-3. Bilbao are a team you do not oppose at home, and going off at similar odds at home have won both times this season. Last season they won 6 from 9 at similar odds.
Getafe (8th) Away : 3-1-9
Getafe, similar to Athletic, are having a good season built on solid home form. Eight wins from 13 at home contrasts markedly with just three away wins.
Getafe go to Bilbao off the back of a three nil win at home to Mallorca, hoping to make up the five point gap between themselves and their hosts. Defeat here looks like it would mean the end of their own, faint Champions League qualification hopes, and they will sorely miss 12 goal top scorer Roberto Soldado who is out for six weeks. The former Real Madrid hitman has scored a third of Getafe’s goals, and teams like Getafe do not have the resources to fill that big a void.
Getafe have won just once in their last six away games, and that was six games ago against a weakened Sevilla side. One goal margin defeats at Camp Nou and the Mestalla in that run can be forgiven, but the defeats at Gijon and Malaga cannot be glossed over quite so easily.
Getafe have won 2 gmaes going off at similar odds away from home (Santander and Espanyol in August and September), but lost the other two. Last season they lost 3 and drew 2 at similar odds.
Head to head
Bilbao may have lost this fixture 1-0 last season, but they had twice as many shots on target as the visitors.
They also have three wins from the last five league meetings with Getafe at San Mames.
The Betting Verdict
This one is not quantum physics. You’ve got a strong home side playing a weak away side who are missing their main goal-scoring threat. And you are getting better than even money for the home win.
Its not a banker by any stretch of the imagination, but there is only one logical conclusion.
The Statistics :
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BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Athletic Bilbao to win at 2.1 (various)
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
This one is usually a tight affair decided by the odd goal, so it may be worth considering taking the -0.25 goals line for the home side at 1.8 or better. This provides half stake protection in the event of a draw.
