Champions League
2010-03-16 - Sevilla vs CSKA Moscow
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : UEFA : Champions League
Tuesday 16th March 2010 - Kickoff 7:45pm
Back to sunny Spain for the return leg with the tie delicately poised at 1-1, with Sevilla having the slim advantage of the away goal. That might not be enough though, as the Russians are more than capable of getting on the scoresheet here.
Sevilla (Spain)
Sevilla boast a very strong record against Eastern European opposition, winning their last two ties. Their home record, while normally strong, has included a large number of draws recently. They have not won at home in a month, drawing their last 2 La Liga home games. Their last fixture was a 1-1 draw entertaining Deportivo.
However, in the Champions League, one can see their results this season have been solid. After beating Urziceni 2-0 and then dispatching of Rangers 1-0, the Andalucian club drew 1-1 with Stuttgart, a club that recently held the mighty Barcelona to the same scoreline. With a solid performance in the chilling Russian weather producing a draw, the club from Seville are firm favourites to progress here with a whole 90 mins yet to be played in familiar warm climate.
Luis Fabiano was the only absentee in their last game, against Deportivo, but otherwise I expect a mostly fit team to return for the return leg, as the Spanish side look to progress to the quarter finals.
CSKA Moscow (Russia)
CSKA somehow scraped through their group and blagged their way into the knockout stages at the expense of Besiktas and Wolfsburg. They joined Manchester United in the pre-quarters and must now win away from home to progress, something the bookies aren't counting on, by the looks of it.
The last time Moscow came to Spain, they dispatched of Spain, although that result came 18 years ago! In their last visit away, at Manchester United, the Russian side showed signs of great speed and counterattacking speed, although this came against a side comprised mostly of reserve players. Against a full strength Sevilla, the task would seem all that more daunting, if not impossible.
In my opinion, CSKA have already had and blown their chance in this tie. they were at home, and really could have sneaked a win, with weather conditions more suited to them than their opponents. But, with a 1-1 draw, the 2nd leg requires them to win and I just don't see that happening. The squad is mostly fit, but the details do not concern me from a betting perspective, as the overall level is way below that of Sevilla.
The Betting Verdict
CSKA are not in the middle of a domestic football season, and are therefore not match fit. They have blown their chance of a lead in the first leg and have surrendered a 1st leg away goal.
That is an advantage for Sevilla, but I don't expect it to matter here, as I expect this Sevilla side to win and win well at home by at least two goals.
Remember, this is a side that recently went to Madrid and went 2-0 up before losing. They will surely break and lead this game early before killing it off. Home win.
The Picks:
The Statistics :
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BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Sevilla to win at 1.60 (Pinnacle) main bet
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Consider Sevilla AH(-1) at 2.10 (Bet365)
