Tennis
2010-03-21 - ATP Indian Wells Ten vs
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Tennis, United States
Preview
The first ATP Masters Event of the year is close to getting started after a couple of weeks break from the ATP tour. The top players are all here for this compulsory event where Rafael Nadal is the current Champion after he beat Andy Murray in terrible conditions last year.
It is a very important event where the top 4 all have a lot of points to defend. Roger Federer, the World Number 1, has not played since his Grand Slam win in Australia and needs to defend his Semi Finalist points here. Federer has been struggling with a lung infection and there were strong rumours that he would be forced to pull out of this event, but the Swiss star has since arrived in California and been practicing.
Novak Djokovic can really cement his World Number 2 ranking as he only reached the Quarter Final point last season, but the Serb has been struggling with his game a little bit even though he did win his last tournament in Dubai. Rafael Nadal is most under threat as he is the current holder of this title. He has been suffering with injury issues and could lose his ranking to Andy Murray, the Runner Up 12 months ago and current World Number 4.
Federer has been given a kind Quarter of the draw and will be given an opportunity to play himself into the tournament if he is not feeling 100% from the start. This section of the draw is littered with seeds that are out of form or struggling with their game and the biggest dark horse in the section is recently returning David Nalbandian. The biggest danger to Federer in this section is likely to be from Andy Roddick. The big serving American has won a tournament already this season in Brisbane while reaching the Final in San Jose. However, he has now lost 4 in a row against Federer and, if the Swiss star is fit, I would expect him to progress to the Semi Final.
The second Quarter of the draw brings together some big names along with the highest seed Andy Murray. The main opponent to Murray is likely to be last years breakout player, Robin Soderling. Soderling looked back to his best when winning a recent tournament in Rotterdam after struggling at the start of the new season. He also won 2 rubbers for Sweden in the Davis Cup so should be full of confidence. I would expect the Soderling-Murray Quarter Final to be a really good match, but believe Murray has the better hard court game, especially outside and would expect the British Number 1 to move through to the Semi Final.
Rafael Nadal has been placed in the 3rd Quarter of the draw and will not be too disappointed with the early matches he is likely to face in a Qualifier and then Julien Benneteau. However, it will be very interesting to see how he copes with the return to the tour and whether he is truly 100% to compete again so I will look elsewhere. Nikolay Davydenko is also in this section, but he was another who was forced to pull out of a recent tournament and also the Russian Davis Cup tie last week. Two dangerous floaters in this section are Ernests Gulbis and Sam Querrey- both men have recently won tournaments, with Gulbis reaching the Final of another. Gulbis is one of the most talented players on tour, but has lacked the effort in the last 18 months to move up to his rightful place in the Rankings and now seems to be doing the right things. Sam Querrey also performs well in America and I can see either of these men coming out of this section.
The final Quarter is led by Novak Djokovic but I feel the main threat will come from the star performer of 2010 in Marin Cilic. Cilic has received a kind draw and his biggest test may come in his first match against Lukas Lacko, who should come through his first round match. Djokovic is someone who should come through to a Quarter Final match with Cilic, although his serve and overall game has looked very suspect in recent weeks.
Final Stages
I think the top half of the draw is unlikely to produce any surprises, in my opinion, and I would expect a Semi Final between the two top seeds in Federer and Murray. There are some question marks over the overall well-being of Federer in terms of fitness and time spent on the court so it is possible he may not make it, but has received a kind enough draw to progress. Murray beat Federer at this stage last season, and has performed very well at this level over the last 2 years and so I will back Murray to come out of the section.
The bottom half is muddier, and there could be a surprise Semi Finalist, especially from the 3rd Quarter of the draw. The other Semi Finalist is likely to get through to the Final and is likely to be either Cilic or Djokovic as discussed. Djokovic holds a 4-0 record against Marin Cilic, but it is the Croatian who has been in strong form all season. I also feel there is a strong chance that Djokovic could again struggle in the heat as he did last season, and I would back Cilic at this moment in time between the two players.
The Final could be an intriguing affair but my bets for this tournament are going to be Andy Murray to win the tournament and also another on Marin Cilic to win each-way.
The Pick :
Andy Murray v Marin Cilic Final
BEST BETTING TIP :
Andy Murray WIN @ 4.5 (BetClic)Marin Cilic e/w @ 25 (BetClic)
