ENGLISH PREMIER BETTING PICK - EVERTON V MANCHESTER UNITED

English Premier

2010-02-20 - Everton vs Manchester United

A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps

Saturday, 20 February 2010

Everton

Last 5 Games at Home : W4-D1-L0 F9-A2

David Moye’s side are a team on the up following the huge win at home to Chelsea last time out in the league. They now face Champions United in the early kick off at Goodison looking to complete a Chelsea, United double in back to back games.

Everton are in great form at the moment winning 5 of their last 7 league games which includes wins over Chelsea and Manchester City with a draw at the Emirates against high flyers Arsenal. The only blemish was a 1-0 loss at Liverpool in a game that they probably should have won considering Liverpool had 10 men for long spells of the game.

Goodison is a hard place to visit and the lsat 5 home games form completely backs that up. 4 wins from 5 which as mention above is against Chelsea (2-1), Man City (2-0), Burnley (2-0), Sunderland (2-0) and the other result a 1-1 draw with Birmingham City who at the time were in the middle of their 12 odd game unbeaten run.

The Toffees are certainly a force to be reckoned with at home and following the mid week UEFA no sorry Europa League win over Sporting, this side is on a high and will certainly be looking for 3 points against United.

A huge factor into the current form has been the defensive display by this side, 4 clean sheets in the last 7 games is excellent stuff and it’s clear that Moyes has his team working hard as a unit off the ball. When you consider that overall Everton only has 6 clean sheets all year that 4 have come in the last 7 games it’s clear that the first half of season was a blip and the real Everton has arrived.

Unfortunately for the Toffees is their record v the top half the table, in 12 games played against the top half they have only won twice losing 5. Now to be fair they did just beat Chelsea and Man City so we can presume they are on the up and about to improve this stat but as I also mentioned above they did lose to the 10 men of Liverpool which is very poor.

Against United it is going to be a tough game and unlike against Chelsea I can’t see them winning from going a goal down, although this team has the second most points gained from a losing position this year with 11 gained from 7 games trailing early on.

More importantly though, I like the stat stating that when in front at HT (7 times), Everton have gone onto win 5 of them 7 games, conversely when trailing at the break (7 times) only 1 draw has been salvaged so the first half clearly is huge for this side.

Team news is that in addition to having Fellaini out for the rest of the season because of an ankle injury. Moyes is also facing up to this game without Cahill – following a calf injury against Sporting. That is two huge blows to the midfield and in total 9 goals which when you consider Cahill on 6 is the second top scorer is a huge blow.

The positives are Steven Pienaar returns following his one match ban served against Chelsea last time out. I expect to see Heitinga recalled to the side and possibly in the holding midfield role in the absence of Fellaini. With Yobo’s returning to the side on Tuesday, he will keep his place allowed Heitinga’s involvement.

At the other end of the field Moyes must decide whether to start Yakubu in a 4-4-2 or go with Dononvan in support of Saha if Cahill fails to make it. I suspect that Cahill will miss out at this stage and I’m going a lineup looking like:

Predicted Everton Lineup : Howard, Neville, Yobo, Distin, Baines; Heitinga, Osman, Arteta, Pienaar, Donovan; Saha.

Manchester United

Last 5 Away : W2-D2-L1 F8-A7

United enter this game 1 point behind leaders Chelsea after the blues slumped to a defeat at Goodison last time out, United are on a 8 game unbeaten run and know a win here on Saturday will put lots of pressure on Chelsea before they kick off later in the day.

The last 5 away games of United don’t look overly impressive but when we look at the last time they lost on the road at Fulham in December, they have visited the KC Stadium (won 3-1), St Andrews ( Drew 1-1, like when Everton played B’ham, it was during their unbeaten spell), the Emirates (Won 3-1) and Villa Park (drew 1-1 with 10 men for over a half of football).

Now to me that is very impressive, this team is getting stronger week by week and to get 5 points from the last 3 away games is proof that this team is going to be there at the summit of the table come May. If they can get a win at Arsenal and a draw at Villa with 10 men then a win at Goodison against a side missing two key midfielders is definitely feasible.

This is the best team in the Premiership away from home and it’s easy to see why, not many teams average 2 goals a game away from home but this team do and it’s mainly because of Wayne Rooney. The ex-Evertonian has 25 goals this year and is playing at the best level of his career. Following his double in Europe at the San Siro, it’s not going to bother him visiting Goodison and if he ticks so do United.

A staggering statistic is United have not dropped a point from a winning position this season which as you can imagine is a league best. So basically in the 16 games that United has gone in front in a maximum of 48 points have been obtained, if United get ahead at Goodison it statistically looks light out for Everton. I also wrote how Everton go onto win when they lead at HT, well United’s stats are even more impressive, when the Red Devils are ahead at the break in the 11 times this has occurred, guess what 11 wins! With all these stats of when United get ahead they win and when leading at HT they win it’s well worth looking into the HT/FT market for this game.

Team news is Rio Ferdinand will miss out as he serves out the last of his four-match ban in this trip to Goodison. With Rio out and the lack of fitness of Vidic we may be left with a partnership of Evans and Brown which most teams would love but it’s hardly the first choice pairing.

Further up the field Nani is also banned following his reckless red card at Villa with Antonio Valencia taking his place out wide. Tactically we could see 4-4-2 from united with Berbatov earning a recall, alternatively Fergy may pack the midfield with Park and Valencia either side of Rooney. Much of this depends on the availability of Scholes, it might be asking a lot for him to have two starts in 4 days following his display in Europe midweek. With that said I expect a lineup of:

Predicted Manchester United Lineup : Van der Sar, Rafael, Brown, Evans, Evra; Carrick, Fletcher, Park, Valencia; Berbatov, Rooney.

The Betting Verdict :

Everton’s squad is much thinner in depth to United’s and given that they both had European ties midweek I expect the Red Devils to just have too much, now that Cahill is a big doubt and that Fellaini is out I can't lay United here.

The Pick :

BEST BETTING TIP :

Take Manchester United to win @ 1.83 Paddy Power

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