English Premier
2010-02-20 - Wolves vs Chelsea
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football: England, Premier League 2009/2010
Saturday, 20th February 2010 - Kickoff 3pm
Wolves
Last 5 Games at Home : W2-D1-L2 F3-A5
Mick McCarthy’s side has recently jumped four places to 15th and out of the relegation zone following the 1-0 win over Spurs at Molinuex, they now host league leaders Chelsea on Saturday hoping to keep the momentum going in their quest for Premiership survival.
Wolves were big underdogs at home to Tottenham last time out as they will be again on Saturday but this team is on a high at the moment, they have had 1 loss in their last 4 games and taken a decent 5 points from 12, which for a relegation team is ok.
A big problem for this team is the lack of goals scored, they simple don’t score enough. After 25 games this term, Wolves has scored only 21 times which is the second worst record in the league only bottom of the barrel Pompey have fewer goals. One goal was good enough to beat Spurs but I doubt it will be enough on Saturday, Wolves in my opinion must score to even salvage a draw in this one.
In their 25 games this year Wolves has managed two or more goals in just 6 games, scoring 2 against Fulham, Sunderland, Bolton, Burnley, Stoke and Hull, they have yet to hit more than 2 goals in a game this year. Now looking at their goals for against the “top 4” in the 5 games so far, just the once has the back of the net been found and that was against Arsenal at home in the last minute when 4-0 down! 4 Shutouts against Chelsea, Man Yoo and Liverpool twice does not look good for this club.
At the back there are in fact 6 teams worse at the back, 42 goals against is over 1.50 goals against a game so it’s easy to see why they are at the bottom of table. However, out of the teams at the foot of the table they do have 5 clean sheets which against Spurs was enough to get them the 3 points. As I said above, they need to score probably twice to have any chance of the 3 points on Saturday but if they score once and keep it tight at the back they have an outside chance of drawing with the Blues. If Wolves can shut out Chelsea it bodes well for them, in the 5 games that Wolves have clean sheets they went on to win 4 of the 5 beating Spurs (twice), Wigan and Burnley.
Early team news for Wolves is that McCarthy has the same squad to pick from the last game, definitely out is Keogh, Edwards and Kightly but Maierhofer should be fit. Mancienne is on loan from Chelsea so I expect he will sit this one out This is a hard working side that look something like:
Predicted Wolverhampton Lineup :
Hahnemann, Stearman, Berra, Craddock, Ward; Zubar, Foley, Jones, Henry, Jarvis; Doyle
Chelsea
Last 5 Away : W1-D3-L1 F5-A5
Leaders Chelsea are doing their best to throw away the league title that at times they have fought soo hard for. The recent win over Arsenal at home was ruined by a shocking display at Everton losing 2-1. They now have an “on paper” favourable fixture at Wolves looking to gain some momentum in the title race.
Whilst being unbeatable at home with 12 wins from 13, away from home this team is very vulnerable for a title challenging side. Carlo Ancelotti’s men have a less than 50% win rate on the road with 6 wins from 13 games and 4 defeats, yet they have had some good results on the road this year specifically the 3-0 win at the Emirates. Yet, there has been just the 1 win from the 6 away games that have followed. The current rot must stop on Saturday with a win and it’s the minimum Chelsea can come away with.
Apart from drawing 0-0 at Birmingham on Boxing Day it’s hard to see how Chelsea has been so bad on the road this year compared to last season when they had 8 wins from 12 games. This team is scoring goals, I single out that game because it’s the only team to stop Chelsea scoring on their travels all year. In total the Blues have scored 22 goals at a rate of just over 1.50 goals a game away but are averaging over a goal a game at the other end which is where the problems lie.
The last clean sheet on their travels was that Birmingham game but that’s no good if you can’t score! The 29th November against Arsenal in the 3-0 win was the last clean sheet win which is very “un-chelsea” like. At least on Saturday they face a Wolves team who struggle for goals and it could just play into Chelsea’s hands.
As per the main threat comes from club top scorer Drogba who has 23 goals in total this year, he is the main threat but there’s goals all across this team with Lampard and Anelka in particular who have 25 goals between them. The last time these two teams played Chelsea literally could have scored 10 in a 4-0 romp at Stamford Bridge, however that was a long time ago now and if we see a 1-0 win that would be like winning 4-0 at the moment.
Anelka who was rested against Cardiff in the cup returns as does inspirational skipper Terry following his leave of absence, I also expect Zhirkov to remain at left back with Ivanovic at right back. The team should look something like this:
Predicted Chelsea Lineup :
Cech, Ivanovic, Carvalho, Terry, Zhirkov; Mikel, Ballack, Lampard, Malouda, Anelka; Drogba.
THe Betting Verdict :
Chelsea has gone in front more than any oither team in this league, 17 times in 26 games the Blues have scored first and have then gone onto win 14 of the 17. When you compare this to Wolves’s second worst stat of allowing the oppostition to score first 16 times and then losing 12 it’s going to point to a Chelsea win if the Blues get in front.
I think that Chelsea will have what it takes to scrape out the 3 points, with Terry back to lead them and a red hot Drogba (4 goals in 4 games) over 90 minutes I’m expecting a couple of Chelsea goals.
I think the Blues will go in front and then who knows what will happen but I expect 2 goals or more from Chelsea with a possible 2 goal victory, however given that Bent has scored in over half their games this year he could knick one for himself to add to his 13 goals this season.
The Pick :
Wolves 0-2 Chelsea
BEST BETTING TIP :
The prices on a Chelsea win of 1.30 - 1.35 looks too short for my liking
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Try Didier Drogba To Score Anytime @ even money (2.00) at VCBet
