Tennis
2010-01-24 - Rafael Nadal vs Ivo Karlovic
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Tennis: Australia, Australian Open Men 2010
Sunday, 24th January 2010 - Kickoff 01:30 GMT
Preview
Rafael Nadal has not looked like himself at times and has had tougher matches than he would have imagined in reaching this stage.
However, in saying the above, it has to be also stated that he has only dropped 1 set in his 3 matches against Peter Luczak, Lukas Lacko and Philip Kohlschreiber. The match against Kohlschreiber could have been even closer, with the German missing some break point chances in the 4th set to prolong that match.
The Spaniard has been struggling a little behind his serve, especially his second serve, but has retained the same heart and attitude that allows him to win some points that he has no right to. He has beaten those players before, but all the wins were expected, and he will have to reverse the trend of only 1 win against a top 10 player in the last 7 months if he is to challenge for this tournament.
Ivo Karlovic has surprised many, myself included, to reach the 2nd week of this tournament, surpassing his previous best of a 3rd round place. The big Croatian is still a threat behind that serve and should provide anyone some challenge.
He has impressive wins over Radek Stepanek, Julien Benneteau and Ivan Ljubicic in the previous rounds, and he is also still active in the Doubles tournament. Karlovic has lost 4 sets in his previous singles matches, having to overcome Stepanek in 5 in the first round. Perhaps more surprisingly is that he has only competed in 2 tie breaks over the 13 sets he has played, perhaps a testament to his current state of mind.
The big man has improved his groundstrokes no end this year so far, with the forehand being particular effective. His weakness has always been the backhand side, but his slice seems to be more of a challenge for his opponents. The serve speaks for itself, although I would be concerned that he has been broken more often that I would have imagined.
Head to Head
Rafael Nadal and Ivo Karlovic have met twice previously, with Nadal coming through both matches 2 sets to 1.
Their last meeting occured on grass at Queens in 2008 with Nadal coming through after 3 tie breaks.
Prediction
Rafael Nadal will feel this is going to be a tough match for him, but has the mental ability to not get too down if the chances dont come easily on the Karlovic serve. He will like to improve his own service games and will not want to give Karlovic any further confidence by handing breaks of serve over.
Ivo Karlovic has had a strong tournament and has shown come good stamina in coming through potentially tough matches. His serve has been effective as well as his volleying which will make it difficult to break and he will also, like John Isner, need to play the big points well in the potential tie breaks.
I see Nadal coming through, but again it could take 4 sets.
Rafael Nadal 7-5, 6-7, 6-3, 7-6
The Pick :
Rafael Nadal 7-5, 6-7, 6-3, 7-6
BEST BETTING TIP :
Rafel Nadal WIN
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Ivo Karlovic +2.5 sets @ 1.8 (Unibet)
