Tennis
2010-01-19 - Feliciano Lopez vs Pablo Cuevas
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Tennis: Australia, Australian Open Men 2010
Tuesday, 19th January 2010- Start 01:15 GMT
The big serving lefty from Spain Feliciano Lopez takes on Uruguayan Pablo Cuevas for a place in the second round of the Australian Open.
Feliciano Lopez
The world number 46 is a big serving and frequent visitor to the net, this combination on Hard Courts is often a winning one.
Lopez has a winning life time record on hard courts having played 190 games on the surface. He also has a winning record in the last year winning 12 matches from 22, in his last game he lost to Gasquet in Sydney but Gasquet was on fire that tournament reaching the final.
Before then in October, Lopez made the semis in Shanhai beating Ferrer, Melzer and Soderling before injury cost him against Nadal although to be fair Rafa was in control at the time. Lopez can be a dangerous player on a hard court he just needs to "turn up" at the slams.
At the Australian Open he has a 8-7 record making the round of 32 twice in 2003 and 2006. Since 2006 the Spaniard has beat players around his level a qualifier in 07 and fellow big server Odesnik in 08. In both those years he lost to a seed in Djokovic and then Gasquet, unfortunately last year he lost to Muller in a game where he was a favourite which isn't good but we know looking at some of the results before the year end that he is capable of playing good hard court tennis.
Lopez is the world number 46 and is facing the world number 50, against players ranked lower than him he has a winning record in the last year of 22-15. Also on outdoor hard courts he has won 2 of his last 3 encounters against lower ranked players only losing to Gasquet which we know isn't really a lower ranked opponent.
When priced as a big favourite of under 1.50 Lopez has a dreadful record, he is 0-4 lifetime with 2 losses coming in the last year. He lost to Taylor Dent in last years US Open in 4 sets and also to Gilles Muller 16-14 in the 5th at the Australian last time around. It's safe to say that on a hard court we can't trust Lopez at this price but I like Lopez this time around because his opponent is not at a 100% which gives him a big edge, please see below for details.
Pablo Cuevas
Pablo reached his highest rank in the ATP rankings at 45 in October 09, he is currently ranked 50 and is going places. Being 5 years the junior of a declining Lopez is certainly going to help the Uruguayan's counter attacking game although this is not his favourite surface.
Cuevas has played 288 career games with only 41 on the hard stuff but to give him credit he has a career winning record on it and is 6-3 in the last year. However, of the 6, 5 wins have come over players ranked below him the world number 70 (Llodra), 102 (Guccione), 90 (Rochus), 132 (Stakhovsky) and 678! (Paul). His only win against someone at the time ranked above him was Golubev, number 56.
Also how can we take him seriously when the guy has played just 9 times in a calender year! Now he faces the big serve and volleying Lopez who has played 4 times the amount of matches on this serface in the last year. Lopez will be better prepared for Ceuvas having played players like him before whilst to Ceuvas, Lopez will be somewhat of an unknown.
Against higher ranked players on all surfaces he is 3-7 in the last 10 games which does not help. In terms of the Australian Open, this is his debut so the surroundings will be unknown to him, whilst Lopez has been here many years and surely will adjust quicker. All these little factors go against Ceuvas although the biggest problem is below.
Lopez surely can't lose to a one handed tennis player? Right? Well we shall see, Pablo Cuevas fractured his left hand in Brisbane of which requires surgery. However, for whatever reason Cuevas has decided to see how it goes with it, yet the signs are not good on his own website pablocuevastennis.com, Uruguayan is seen arriving in Melbourne with his arm in a sling with plaster around his entire wrist and the left thumb (not the other four fingers).
I've been reading up that it just needs 10 days rest for him to get through a few games this week, which to me sounds insane! Now this is where it's up to you as a punter to make a judgement call, Pablo is right handed and plays a single handed backhand so he doesn't "need" his left hand. But if anyone here has played tennis before, it's about being in a rhythm and feeling comfortable and good when you strike a ball, how his ball toss on serving will be above is hard to believe.
Also how good will his movement be with a fractured hand? Surely he will be in pain or conscious of it? Even so, the final decision will be made with his coach Daniel Orsanic, at the last possible minute deciding if he plays this game or not.
THe betting Verdict
I liked the match up anyways but even more so with this news for Lopez. The odds are terrible but given the circumstances not even Felicano can mess this up.
I'd take Lopez at a bookies that settles games if a player retires after a set, I expect Pablo to start the game but can he handle a possible 5 setter with a fractured hand? I'm not so sure.
The Pick :
Take Feliciano to advance to the next round
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Lopez to win this match.Check books that settle matches after a set played or less, but his price is 1.40 at the moment.
