NCAA Football
2010-01-04 - TCU Horned Frogs at Boise State Broncos
A Sports Betting Pick by Goober
Fiesta Bowl – Glendale, Arizona
January 4th, 2010 - Kickoff 8PM EST
#6 Boise State Broncos (13-0)
Boise State had a relatively easy road to a perfect 13-0 season. The only quality win on the schedule was the opening win at home to Oregon.
No other team on the schedule was ranked and Boise State cruised to the WAC title. Because of the weak schedule, it’s hard to make much sense out of their stats for the year.
So far this bowl season, WAC teams have been less than impressive. Fresno State was a 14-point favorite and lost. Nevada was also a double-digit favorite and lost by double-digits. Only Idaho has been able to win with that last minute play.
The WAC was 2-4 in bowl games last year and 2-3 in 2007-08 so they typically don’t match up well with teams from different conferences.
#3 TCU Horned Frogs (12-0)
TCU, on the other hand, played several quality opponents.
The Horned Frogs traveled to Clemson early in the season and won against a good team in a very tough environment. They went to BYU and destroyed the Cougars 38-7 on their home field.
Later in the season, TCU hosted Utah and beat them 55-28 to lock up the Mountain West Conference title. TCU is the only team in the nation ranked in the top 10 in the nation in both total offense and total defense.
The Mountain West Conference has been dominant in bowl games so far with a 4-0 record (and 4-0 against the spread). Two of those have been big underdogs (Wyoming and Air Force). The other two have been impressive as well with BYU and Utah both beating quality Pac-10 teams. The Mountain West was also 3-2 last year and 4-1 in 2007-08.
Head to Head
These two met in a lesser bowl last year and TCU won 17-16. TCU dominated much of the game, gaining 472 yards to Boise State’s 250 yards. TCU offense was not nearly as strong last year and was not able to finish off drives. That will not be an issue this year.
The Betting Verdict
TCU is going to be too big, too fast, too good for Boise State. This one will not be close.
The Pick :
TCU 38, Boise State 13
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take TCU -7.5 points to win and cover.
