NCAA Football
2009-12-31 - Air Force Falcons at Houston Cougars
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth Texas
Football: United States, NCAA Football
Friday 31st December 2009 - Kickoff 12pm ET / 5pm GMT
Preview
This will be the first time since the beginning of the decade that 2 sides will compete in a Bowl game in consecutive seasons. Last season, Houston gained revenge over the Air Force for a defeat earlier in the season to pick up a 34-28 victory in the big end of season game.
The game is being keenly anticipated, no less so because we will see the nations top ranked passing offense of the Cougars go up against the top ranked passing defence of the Falcons.
Houston are led by QB Case Keenum, who followed up last seasons 44 touchdown passes with 43 this season. He was voted as the 2nd best QB in the nation this season. The Cougars are loaded at the Wide Receiver position and they have 3 players with at least 7 touchdown receptions.
The Falcons improved their pass defence from the number 50 last season to number 1 this. They may have lost their last 3 Bowl matches but will feel they have a chance in this game if they can keep the potent Houston offence off the field. This may be achieved with their 4th ranked rushing offence in the nation, especially coming against the 112th ranked rushing defence of Houston.
Season Statistics
Houston come into this match with a 10-3 record this season. They were also 8-4 against the spread. The Cougars lost their last match but they have won 7 of their last 9. They are 6-3 against the spread over the same period.
The Air Force are 7-5 this season, and 6-5 against the spread. They also lost their last match of the regular season but they have won 4 of their last 6 matches. The Falcons have only lost 1 of their last 5 matches against the spread.
Houston are 7-2 against the spread in their last 9 matches on grass.
Air Force are 2-7 against the spread against teams with winning records over their last 9 matches against such teams.
Last season, the Falcons covered the spread in their victory over Houston in the regular season. Houston returned the favour by covering the spread in their win in the Bowl match.
Prediction
Houston will not surprise anyone by airing the ball out with Keenam at QB. They will look for quick strikes and have many receivers that can make the big play. Keenam is also known for looking after the ball, throwing only 9 interceptions this season compared with 43 touchdown passes.
The Falcons will look to control the clock and time of possession here with their strong running game. The QB is usually used for short passes to pick up 1st downs, and we can expect to see a lot of action from their running backs.
While the old saying is that defences win Championships, I am going to favour the Houston Cougars to win the battle of the number 1 ranked units and be able to make enough big passes to win the game. It will be hard for Air Force to keep up, especially if Case Keenam finds his groove early, and it will be a problem if Houston take a commanding lead early.
I expect Houston to cover the point spread provided.
The Pick :
Houston Cougars 34-20 Air Force Falcons
